Will Rodez Aveyron Football win on 2026-11-14?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 81¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Yes20¢No80¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$94.42

Smart Money Entry

71.2¢ → 80.5¢

+13% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,358

Combined PnL+$94.42

Yes1 trader

Total Value$58.4

Total Shares146

Combined PnL+$0

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 77.6¢	$767.04	$830.78	+$74.46	49% 3807-3970 (7777)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 78¢	$382.24	$372.44	-$9.8	35% 438-797 (1235)
rayvanmechelen	Noavg 59.6¢	$262.51	$268.45	+$5.94	9% 30-286 (316)
tradecraft	Noavg 59.5¢	$113.5	$142.11	+$28.6	30% 332-773 (1105)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 61¢	$130.19	$120	-$1.99	53% 1340-1169 (2509)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 40.6¢	$100.35	$82.76	-$17.59	53% 2083-1825 (3908)
└ No leg	Noavg 65.6¢	$44.34	$53.09	+$8.74
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40.6¢	$56	$29.67	-$26.33
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Noavg 79¢	$63.04	$59.76	-$3.27	50% 2506-2466 (4972)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$58.4	$58.4	+$0	56% 461-367 (828)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 61¢	$14.86	$14.86	+$0	37% 966-1630 (2596)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 59¢	$2.95	$3.03	+$0.07	48% 2066-2225 (4291)
BI biying99999<$100	Noavg 51¢	$2.02	$2.42	+$0.4	35% 104-192 (296)

Flaznorp

Invested

$767.04

Value

$830.78

PnL

+$74.46

Record

49%

3807-3970 (7777)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$382.24

Value

$372.44

PnL

-$9.8

Record

35%

438-797 (1235)

rayvanmechelen

Invested

$262.51

Value

$268.45

PnL

+$5.94

Record

30-286 (316)

tradecraft

Invested

$113.5

Value

$142.11

PnL

+$28.6

Record

30%

332-773 (1105)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$130.19

Value

$120

PnL

-$1.99

Record

53%

1340-1169 (2509)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$100.35

Value

$82.76

PnL

-$17.59

Record

53%

2083-1825 (3908)

Both legs:

No$44.3465.6¢+$8.74

Yes$5640.6¢-$26.33

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Invested

$63.04

Value

$59.76

PnL

-$3.27

Record

50%

2506-2466 (4972)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.4

Value

$58.4

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

461-367 (828)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$14.86

Value

$14.86

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

966-1630 (2596)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$2.95

Value

$3.03

PnL

+$0.07

Record

48%

2066-2225 (4291)

biying99999<$100

Invested

$2.02

Value

$2.42

PnL

+$0.4

Record

35%

104-192 (296)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.