Will Stade de Reims win on 2026-11-14?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$542.69

Smart Money Entry

66.3¢ → 100¢

+51% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares1,976

Combined PnL+$518.07

No5 traders

Total Value$64.79

Total Shares218

Combined PnL+$24.62

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 60.1¢	$1.5K	$2.0K	+$530.3	49% 3811-3974 (7785)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Yesavg 99¢	$241.1	$242.32	+$1.22	98% 458-7 (465)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Yesavg 84.5¢	$100.58	$84.49	-$16.09	56% 462-367 (829)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 17.8¢	$30.12	$49.01	+$18.89	36% 928-1642 (2570)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 43.2¢	$9.07	$8.88	+$2.71	48% 2067-2229 (4296)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 14.7¢	$4.4	$8.7	+$4.3	36% 945-1666 (2611)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$4.76	$4.69	-$0.07	46% 2616-3104 (5720)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 53¢	$2.14	$3.05	+$0.91	35% 438-797 (1235)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$2	$2.9	+$0.9	37% 966-1631 (2597)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$1.5	$1.13	-$0.38	38% 537-879 (1416)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$1,472.64

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$530.3

Record

49%

3811-3974 (7785)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Yes

Invested

$241.1

Value

$242.32

PnL

+$1.22

Record

98%

458-7 (465)

LeLynxMalynx

Yes

Invested

$100.58

Value

$84.49

PnL

-$16.09

Record

56%

462-367 (829)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$30.12

Value

$49.01

PnL

+$18.89

Record

36%

928-1642 (2570)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.07

Value

$8.88

PnL

+$2.71

Record

48%

2067-2229 (4296)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$4.4

Value

$8.7

PnL

+$4.3

Record

36%

945-1666 (2611)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.69

PnL

-$0.07

Record

46%

2616-3104 (5720)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$2.14

Value

$3.05

PnL

+$0.91

Record

35%

438-797 (1235)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$2.9

PnL

+$0.9

Record

37%

966-1631 (2597)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.13

PnL

-$0.38

Record

38%

537-879 (1416)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.