Will USPF Saint-Philbert-de-Grand-Lieu vs. Vendée Fontenay Foot end in a draw?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$2.6

Smart Money Entry

99.3¢ → 99.4¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,302

Combined PnL-$4.26

No4 traders

Total Value$5.27

Total Shares880

Combined PnL+$1.66

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
dips.	Yesavg 99.4¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$4.87	41% 176-256 (432)
LU lukibazdonauki754<$100	Yesavg 95.5¢	$16.55	$17.16	+$0.61	56% 90-72 (162)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Yesavg 99¢	$10	$10	+$0	40% 2998-4409 (7407)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 0.4¢	$1.74	$2.61	+$0.87	86% 32-5 (37)
ME merodCTR<$100	Noavg 0.4¢	$1.52	$2.27	+$0.76	85% 22-4 (26)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 0.5¢	$0.3	$0.36	+$0.06	28% 2405-6142 (8547)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 0.9¢	$0.05	$0.02	-$0.03	35% 141-260 (401)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$1,267.12

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$4.87

Record

41%

176-256 (432)

lukibazdonauki754<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.55

Value

$17.16

PnL

+$0.61

Record

56%

90-72 (162)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$10

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

2998-4409 (7407)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$1.74

Value

$2.61

PnL

+$0.87

Record

86%

32-5 (37)

merodCTR<$100

Invested

$1.52

Value

$2.27

PnL

+$0.76

Record

85%

22-4 (26)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.36

PnL

+$0.06

Record

28%

2405-6142 (8547)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.03

Record

35%

141-260 (401)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.