Will USL Dunkerque win on 2026-11-14?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 63¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 78%
$1.5K
$511.91
49.8¢ → 62.5¢
+26% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 50¢ | $665.89 | $1.0K | +$349.15 | 49% 3867-4029 (7896) |
 rayvanmechelen | Noavg 45.4¢ | $265.46 | $426.63 | +$161.17 | 9% 30-286 (316) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $31.66 | $31.87 | +$0.21 | 53% 2108-1855 (3963) |
 Secondhandvinyl<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $22.33 | $24.22 | +$1.89 | 75% 246-80 (326) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $8.93 | $13.87 | +$4.94 | 36% 950-1657 (2607) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $12 | $12.32 | +$0.32 | 36% 455-810 (1265) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $14.22 | $12.11 | -$2.11 | 50% 2532-2495 (5027) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 54.3¢ | $12.47 | $8.62 | -$3.85 | 31% 343-780 (1123) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $3.65 | $3.85 | +$0.2 | 48% 2109-2267 (4376) |
Invested
$665.89
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$349.15
Record
49%
3867-4029 (7896)
rayvanmechelenInvested
$265.46
Value
$426.63
PnL
+$161.17
Record
9%
30-286 (316)
Invested
$31.66
Value
$31.87
PnL
+$0.21
Record
53%
2108-1855 (3963)
Secondhandvinyl<$100Invested
$22.33
Value
$24.22
PnL
+$1.89
Record
75%
246-80 (326)
Invested
$8.93
Value
$13.87
PnL
+$4.94
Record
36%
950-1657 (2607)
Invested
$12
Value
$12.32
PnL
+$0.32
Record
36%
455-810 (1265)
Invested
$14.22
Value
$12.11
PnL
-$2.11
Record
50%
2532-2495 (5027)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$12.47
Value
$8.62
PnL
-$3.85
Record
31%
343-780 (1123)
Invested
$3.65
Value
$3.85
PnL
+$0.2
Record
48%
2109-2267 (4376)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.