Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (77%). 2 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will US Quevilly-Rouen Métropole win on 2026-11-14?
2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (22%) · Yes at 23¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 22%
$1.1K
-$190.64
22.8¢ → 23¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 23%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 22.9¢ | $387.14 | $397.76 | +$10.62 | 49% 3821-3983 (7804) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR | Yesavg 22.6¢ | $265.01 | $269.97 | +$4.96 | 9% 30-286 (316) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 77¢ | $264.72 | $178.77 | -$85.95 | 47% 895-994 (1889) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 78¢ | $206.74 | $137.83 | -$68.91 | 35% 440-800 (1240) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $70.84 | $46.05 | -$24.79 | 42% 2632-3663 (6295) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $36.56 | $24.69 | -$11.87 | 49% 1117-1185 (2302) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $35 | $23.63 | -$11.36 | 60% 712-483 (1195) |
SU suntori<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $9.52 | $6.19 | -$3.33 | 46% 2653-3138 (5791) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $5.5 | $5.5 | +$0 | 36% 948-1669 (2617) |
Invested
$387.14
Value
$397.76
PnL
+$10.62
Record
49%
3821-3983 (7804)
rayvanmechelenCTRInvested
$265.01
Value
$269.97
PnL
+$4.96
Record
9%
30-286 (316)
Invested
$264.72
Value
$178.77
PnL
-$85.95
Record
47%
895-994 (1889)
Invested
$206.74
Value
$137.83
PnL
-$68.91
Record
35%
440-800 (1240)
Invested
$70.84
Value
$46.05
PnL
-$24.79
Record
42%
2632-3663 (6295)
poshposh<$100Invested
$36.56
Value
$24.69
PnL
-$11.87
Record
49%
1117-1185 (2302)
Invested
$35
Value
$23.63
PnL
-$11.36
Record
60%
712-483 (1195)
Invested
$9.52
Value
$6.19
PnL
-$3.33
Record
46%
2653-3138 (5791)
Invested
$5.5
Value
$5.5
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
948-1669 (2617)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.