Will US Boulogne Côte d'Opale win on 2026-11-14?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 81¢ · $652 held · ended Nov 14

Yes20¢No80¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$652.47

Combined PnL

$350.88

Smart Money Entry

30.6¢ → 80.5¢

+163% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$631.93

Total Shares811

Combined PnL+$372.71

Yes2 traders

Total Value$20.55

Total Shares66

Combined PnL-$21.83

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 38.2¢	$126.4	$251.83	+$125.43	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 15.9¢	$44.11	$221.69	+$177.58	37% 977-1669 (2646)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 57.1¢	$47.64	$66.29	+$18.65	36% 950-1657 (2607)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 15¢	$12.75	$45.05	+$32.3	37% 985-1642 (2627)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 45.1¢	$21.2	$35.98	+$14.78	37% 968-1674 (2642)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 80.1¢	$37.91	$16.57	-$21.34	53% 2108-1855 (3963)
RN1<$100	Noavg 61¢	$6.1	$6.5	+$0.4	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 17¢	$1.02	$4.59	+$3.57	48% 2109-2267 (4376)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.2¢	$4.46	$3.97	-$0.49	50% 2532-2495 (5027)

Flaznorp

Invested

$126.4

Value

$251.83

PnL

+$125.43

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

LightParadox

Invested

$44.11

Value

$221.69

PnL

+$177.58

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$47.64

Value

$66.29

PnL

+$18.65

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$12.75

Value

$45.05

PnL

+$32.3

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$21.2

Value

$35.98

PnL

+$14.78

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.91

Value

$16.57

PnL

-$21.34

Record

53%

2108-1855 (3963)

RN1<$100

Invested

$6.1

Value

$6.5

PnL

+$0.4

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$1.02

Value

$4.59

PnL

+$3.57

Record

48%

2109-2267 (4376)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.46

Value

$3.97

PnL

-$0.49

Record

50%

2532-2495 (5027)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.