Will AS Saint-Ouen-l'Aumône win on 2026-11-14?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 55¢ · $803 held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$802.92
$152.32
75.6¢ → 55.5¢
-27% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 19.5¢ | $212.83 | $420.89 | +$208.06 | 49% 3867-4029 (7896) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 73¢ | $348.94 | $307.83 | -$41.11 | 53% 2108-1855 (3963) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Noavg 93.1¢ | $57.11 | $45.93 | -$11.18 | 50% 2532-2495 (5027) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $24 | $18.25 | -$5.75 | 36% 455-810 (1265) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 31.9¢ | $15.32 | $6.95 | +$2.25 | 48% 2109-2267 (4376) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 60.8¢ | $3.04 | $3.08 | +$0.04 | 37% 968-1674 (2642) |
Invested
$212.83
Value
$420.89
PnL
+$208.06
Record
49%
3867-4029 (7896)
Invested
$348.94
Value
$307.83
PnL
-$41.11
Record
53%
2108-1855 (3963)
Invested
$57.11
Value
$45.93
PnL
-$11.18
Record
50%
2532-2495 (5027)
Invested
$24
Value
$18.25
PnL
-$5.75
Record
36%
455-810 (1265)
Invested
$15.32
Value
$6.95
PnL
+$2.25
Record
48%
2109-2267 (4376)
Invested
$3.04
Value
$3.08
PnL
+$0.04
Record
37%
968-1674 (2642)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.