Will Red Star FC win on 2026-11-15?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 78¢ · $287 held · ended Nov 15

Yes78¢No22¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$286.8

Combined PnL

$0.58

Smart Money Entry

67.2¢ → 78¢

+16% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes78%

No22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$268.6

Total Shares370

Combined PnL+$0.04

No2 traders

Total Value$18.2

Total Shares43

Combined PnL+$0.54

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Yesavg 77¢	$87.86	$91.28	+$3.42	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 56.4¢	$73.36	$76.05	+$2.69	56% 649-514 (1163)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$46.36	$43.81	-$2.55	50% 2835-2864 (5699)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Yesavg 76¢	$41.55	$35.41	-$6.15	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$16.67	$19.12	+$2.45	46% 39-46 (85)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$38.37	$15.98	+$0.51	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
BL BlackMamba08<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.93	+$0.17	50% 25-25 (50)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.23	+$0.02	48% 2518-2728 (5246)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Yes

Invested

$87.86

Value

$91.28

PnL

+$3.42

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.36

Value

$76.05

PnL

+$2.69

Record

56%

649-514 (1163)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.36

Value

$43.81

PnL

-$2.55

Record

50%

2835-2864 (5699)

Flaznorp<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.55

Value

$35.41

PnL

-$6.15

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.67

Value

$19.12

PnL

+$2.45

Record

46%

39-46 (85)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$38.37

Value

$15.98

PnL

+$0.51

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

BlackMamba08<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.93

PnL

+$0.17

Record

50%

25-25 (50)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.23

PnL

+$0.02

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.