Will Paris 13 Atletico win on 2026-11-15?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$42.48

Smart Money Entry

92.8¢ → 99.2¢

+7% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,415

Combined PnL+$8.7

Yes3 traders

Total Value$11.12

Total Shares1,170

Combined PnL-$51.18

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 94¢	$695.45	$706.85	+$11.4	47% 1186-1358 (2544)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 94.4¢	$451.88	$421.07	-$17.87	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 81¢	$93.96	$108.46	+$14.5	37% 1333-2226 (3559)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Noavg 95¢	$97.28	$97.79	+$0.51	50% 2835-2864 (5699)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 81¢	$14.58	$14.58	+$0	38% 1338-2179 (3517)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 80.5¢	$16.48	$12.54	+$0.16	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$57.77	$9.74	-$48.03	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$1.08	$1.2	+$0.12	48% 2518-2728 (5246)
TH thatsabing0CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$3.45	$0.17	-$3.28	62% 265-160 (425)

SnakeBall

Invested

$695.45

Value

$706.85

PnL

+$11.4

Record

47%

1186-1358 (2544)

Flaznorp

Invested

$451.88

Value

$421.07

PnL

-$17.87

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

LightParadox

Invested

$93.96

Value

$108.46

PnL

+$14.5

Record

37%

1333-2226 (3559)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Invested

$97.28

Value

$97.79

PnL

+$0.51

Record

50%

2835-2864 (5699)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$14.58

Value

$14.58

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1338-2179 (3517)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$16.48

Value

$12.54

PnL

+$0.16

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.77

Value

$9.74

PnL

-$48.03

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.2

PnL

+$0.12

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

thatsabing0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.45

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$3.28

Record

62%

265-160 (425)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.