GFA Rumilly Vallières vs. AS Saint-Étienne: O/U 3.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 95¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Over6¢Under94¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$145.27

Smart Money Entry

67¢ → 94.5¢

+41% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over6%

Under95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,036

Combined PnL+$278.34

Over5 traders

Total Value$42.23

Total Shares438

Combined PnL-$133.07

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 74.2¢	$975.45	$955.47	-$19.98	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
rayvanmechelen	Underavg 60.3¢	$338.87	$471.92	+$133.05	16% 58-297 (355)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 60¢	$359	$376	+$134	53% 1889-1648 (3537)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 60¢	$47.4	$74.26	+$26.86	56% 651-514 (1165)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$59	$25.08	-$33.93	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 74¢	$16.28	$20.68	+$4.4	48% 2522-2734 (5256)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$82	$11.28	-$70.73	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$18	$2.7	-$15.3	35% 628-1146 (1774)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$13.32	$2	-$11.32	38% 1318-2168 (3486)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$2.98	$1.18	-$1.8	41% 1175-1673 (2848)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$975.45

Value

$955.47

PnL

-$19.98

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

rayvanmechelen

Under

Invested

$338.87

Value

$471.92

PnL

+$133.05

Record

16%

58-297 (355)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$359

Value

$376

PnL

+$134

Record

53%

1889-1648 (3537)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$47.4

Value

$74.26

PnL

+$26.86

Record

56%

651-514 (1165)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$59

Value

$25.08

PnL

-$33.93

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$16.28

Value

$20.68

PnL

+$4.4

Record

48%

2522-2734 (5256)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$82

Value

$11.28

PnL

-$70.73

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18

Value

$2.7

PnL

-$15.3

Record

35%

628-1146 (1774)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.32

Value

PnL

-$11.32

Record

38%

1318-2168 (3486)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.98

Value

$1.18

PnL

-$1.8

Record

41%

1175-1673 (2848)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.