GFA Rumilly Vallières vs. AS Saint-Étienne: O/U 2.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$122.89

Smart Money Entry

72¢ → 99.5¢

+38% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$748.85

Total Shares1,068

Combined PnL-$299.21

Under5 traders

Total Value$363.87

Total Shares499

Combined PnL+$176.32

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (5 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 81.5¢	$755.09	$585.11	-$169.97	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
rayvanmechelenCTR	Underavg 37.2¢	$170.78	$334.87	+$164.09	16% 58-297 (355)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 62.7¢	$188	$132	-$56	53% 1889-1648 (3537)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 58.7¢	$102.12	$26.09	-$76.04	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$10.14	$21.32	+$11.18	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
AR ARocky33<$100	Overavg 28.5¢	$2.85	$5.65	+$2.8	78% 827-231 (1058)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$2.99	$4.62	+$1.64	54% 6017-5091 (11108)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$0.82	$1.64	+$0.82	29% 96-237 (333)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$2.82	$1.41	-$1.41	48% 2522-2734 (5256)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$755.09

Value

$585.11

PnL

-$169.97

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

rayvanmechelenCTR

Under

Invested

$170.78

Value

$334.87

PnL

+$164.09

Record

16%

58-297 (355)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$188

Value

$132

PnL

-$56

Record

53%

1889-1648 (3537)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$102.12

Value

$26.09

PnL

-$76.04

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.14

Value

$21.32

PnL

+$11.18

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

ARocky33<$100

Over

Invested

$2.85

Value

$5.65

PnL

+$2.8

Record

78%

827-231 (1058)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.99

Value

$4.62

PnL

+$1.64

Record

54%

6017-5091 (11108)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.82

Value

$1.64

PnL

+$0.82

Record

29%

96-237 (333)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.82

Value

$1.41

PnL

-$1.41

Record

48%

2522-2734 (5256)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (5 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.