GFA Rumilly Vallières vs. AS Saint-Étienne: O/U 1.5

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (36%) · Over at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 36%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$360.12

Smart Money Entry

70.3¢ → 100¢

+42% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,323

Combined PnL-$18.51

Under7 traders

Total Value$85.21

Total Shares1,544

Combined PnL-$341.61

Over — 36%Under — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
95 95de	Overavg 69¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$15	61% 19-12 (31)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 28.9¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$73.1	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
└ Under leg	Underavg 28.9¢	$718.33	$858.14	+$139.81
└ Over leg	Overavg 79.6¢	$376.36	$309.64	-$66.72
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 83.7¢	$262.05	$256.74	-$5.31	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$70.74	$70.74	+$0	38% 1342-2182 (3524)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 29¢	$16.31	$10.12	-$6.19	35% 628-1146 (1774)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100	Overavg 45¢	$2.25	$4.1	+$1.85	29% 96-237 (333)
RO Rocky31<$100	Overavg 64¢	$3.2	$3.15	-$0.05	47% 127-145 (272)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$2.14	$2.11	-$0.03	38% 1342-2205 (3547)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$1.72	$1.7	-$0.03	54% 6017-5091 (11108)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 31¢	$297.26	$0.48	-$296.78	38% 1318-2168 (3486)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$29.14	$0.05	-$29.09	48% 2522-2734 (5256)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$9.5	$0.02	-$9.48	37% 1336-2230 (3566)

95de

Over

Invested

$2,069.99

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$15

Record

61%

19-12 (31)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,094.69

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$73.1

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

Both legs:

Under$718.3328.9¢+$139.81

Over$376.3679.6¢-$66.72

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$262.05

Value

$256.74

PnL

-$5.31

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$70.74

Value

$70.74

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1342-2182 (3524)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.31

Value

$10.12

PnL

-$6.19

Record

35%

628-1146 (1774)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100

Over

Invested

$2.25

Value

$4.1

PnL

+$1.85

Record

29%

96-237 (333)

Rocky31<$100

Over

Invested

$3.2

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$0.05

Record

47%

127-145 (272)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.14

Value

$2.11

PnL

-$0.03

Record

38%

1342-2205 (3547)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.72

Value

$1.7

PnL

-$0.03

Record

54%

6017-5091 (11108)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$297.26

Value

$0.48

PnL

-$296.78

Record

38%

1318-2168 (3486)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.14

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$29.09

Record

48%

2522-2734 (5256)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.5

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$9.48

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.