Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold GFA Rumilly Vallières, while the market favors AS Saint-Étienne (50%). 0 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: AS Saint-Étienne (-1.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold GFA Rumilly Vallières (78%) · GFA Rumilly Vallières at 50¢ · $354 held · ends Nov 15

AS Saint-Étienne50¢GFA Rumilly Vallières50¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

GFA Rumilly Vallières

Consensus Traders

GFA Rumilly Vallières 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$353.93

Combined PnL

$1.86

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 50¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralGFA Rumilly Vallières at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

GFA Rumilly Vallières

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors AS Saint-Étienne 50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

AS Saint-Étienne50%

GFA Rumilly Vallières50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

GFA Rumilly Vallières7 traders

Total Value$150.14

Total Shares303

Combined PnL+$1.44

AS Saint-Étienne2 traders

Total Value$21

Total Shares42

Combined PnL+$0.42

GFA Rumilly Vallières — 78%AS Saint-Étienne — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	AS Saint-Étienneavg 51¢	$185.92	$182.79	-$3.13	52% 2441-2217 (4658)
└ AS Saint-Étienne leg	AS Saint-Étienneavg 51¢	$108.09	$107.05	-$1.04
└ GFA Rumilly Vallières leg	GFA Rumilly Vallièresavg 50.9¢	$77.83	$75.74	-$2.09
FL Flaznorp<$100	GFA Rumilly Vallièresavg 48.6¢	$94.91	$96.69	+$1.79	49% 4560-4822 (9382)
VE Venusian<$100	GFA Rumilly Vallièresavg 50¢	$24.23	$24.23	+$0	38% 1301-2146 (3447)
BI biying99999<$100	AS Saint-Étienneavg 49¢	$16.17	$16.5	+$0.33	40% 149-223 (372)
MA MadridTime<$100	GFA Rumilly Vallièresavg 50¢	$9.61	$9.51	-$0.1	38% 1303-2129 (3432)
LI LightParadox<$100	GFA Rumilly Vallièresavg 50¢	$8.79	$8.79	+$0	37% 1293-2176 (3469)
SE sentrio<$100	GFA Rumilly Vallièresavg 50¢	$7.3	$7.08	-$0.22	41% 1159-1644 (2803)
SN SnakeBall<$100	AS Saint-Étienneavg 49¢	$4.41	$4.5	+$0.09	47% 1160-1322 (2482)
LI Limousin<$100	GFA Rumilly Vallièresavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.35	-$0.05	38% 1276-2118 (3394)
FE ferdinand2<$100	GFA Rumilly Vallièresavg 49¢	$1.46	$1.48	+$0.01	48% 2465-2697 (5162)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

AS Saint-Étienne

Invested

$185.92

Value

$182.79

PnL

-$3.13

Record

52%

2441-2217 (4658)

Both legs:

AS Saint-Étienne$108.0951¢-$1.04

GFA Rumilly Vallières$77.8350.9¢-$2.09

Flaznorp<$100

GFA Rumilly Vallières

Invested

$94.91

Value

$96.69

PnL

+$1.79

Record

49%

4560-4822 (9382)

Venusian<$100

GFA Rumilly Vallières

Invested

$24.23

Value

$24.23

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1301-2146 (3447)

biying99999<$100

AS Saint-Étienne

Invested

$16.17

Value

$16.5

PnL

+$0.33

Record

40%

149-223 (372)

MadridTime<$100

GFA Rumilly Vallières

Invested

$9.61

Value

$9.51

PnL

-$0.1

Record

38%

1303-2129 (3432)

LightParadox<$100

GFA Rumilly Vallières

Invested

$8.79

Value

$8.79

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

1293-2176 (3469)

sentrio<$100

GFA Rumilly Vallières

Invested

$7.3

Value

$7.08

PnL

-$0.22

Record

41%

1159-1644 (2803)

SnakeBall<$100

AS Saint-Étienne

Invested

$4.41

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$0.09

Record

47%

1160-1322 (2482)

Limousin<$100

GFA Rumilly Vallières

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0.05

Record

38%

1276-2118 (3394)

ferdinand2<$100

GFA Rumilly Vallières

Invested

$1.46

Value

$1.48

PnL

+$0.01

Record

48%

2465-2697 (5162)

Research grade

NeutralGFA Rumilly Vallières at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

GFA Rumilly Vallières

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors AS Saint-Étienne 50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that GFA Rumilly Vallières wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.