Will GFA Rumilly Vallières win on 2026-11-15?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 87¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$85.13

Smart Money Entry

87.8¢ → 86.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$482.56

Total Shares3,472

Combined PnL+$79.62

No4 traders

Total Value$775.28

Total Shares812

Combined PnL+$5.51

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+31 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 11.6¢	$348.15	$419.85	+$71.71	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 88.2¢	$393.89	$399.51	+$5.63	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
NM NM-P	Noavg 87¢	$213.38	$213.17	-$0.22	59% 3948-2729 (6677)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 87¢	$182.46	$184.45	+$1.99	42% 547-747 (1294)
└ No leg	Noavg 87¢	$136.24	$134.68	-$1.57
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 13¢	$46.22	$49.77	+$3.55
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 88¢	$154	$154	-$0	47% 1186-1358 (2544)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.2¢	$36.38	$41.8	+$5.42	41% 1173-1667 (2840)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.1¢	$13.62	$16.1	+$2.48	48% 2518-2728 (5246)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 85¢	$159.6	$8.6	+$0.1	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$4.8	$4.8	+$0	53% 7468-6589 (14057)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$348.15

Value

$419.85

PnL

+$71.71

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$393.89

Value

$399.51

PnL

+$5.63

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

NM-P

Invested

$213.38

Value

$213.17

PnL

-$0.22

Record

59%

3948-2729 (6677)

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$182.46

Value

$184.45

PnL

+$1.99

Record

42%

547-747 (1294)

Both legs:

No$136.2487¢-$1.57

Yes$46.2213¢+$3.55

SnakeBall

Invested

$154

Value

$154

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

1186-1358 (2544)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.38

Value

$41.8

PnL

+$5.42

Record

41%

1173-1667 (2840)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.62

Value

$16.1

PnL

+$2.48

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$159.6

Value

$8.6

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.8

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+31 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.