Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will GFA Rumilly Vallières vs. AS Saint-Étienne end in a draw?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 31¢ · $222 held · ended Nov 15

Yes31¢No69¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$222.31

Combined PnL

-$3.35

Smart Money Entry

29.5¢ → 30.5¢

+3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$181.31

Total Shares643

Combined PnL-$8.39

No2 traders

Total Value$41

Total Shares52

Combined PnL+$5.04

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 36.9¢	$131.14	$108.34	-$22.8	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$21.97	$27.14	+$5.17	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 65.7¢	$21.68	$26.07	+$4.39	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Noavg 75.6¢	$14.28	$14.93	+$0.65	50% 2841-2879 (5720)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$9.52	$11.34	+$1.82	46% 3240-3776 (7016)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.4¢	$8.37	$10.73	+$2.36	38% 1342-2205 (3547)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$8.29	$10.66	+$2.37	38% 1342-2182 (3524)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$6.8	$8.4	+$1.6	53% 7473-6603 (14076)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$2.69	$3.32	+$0.63	38% 1318-2168 (3486)
SecondhandvinylCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$0.92	$1.38	+$0.46	78% 379-110 (489)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$131.14

Value

$108.34

PnL

-$22.8

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.97

Value

$27.14

PnL

+$5.17

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$21.68

Value

$26.07

PnL

+$4.39

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Invested

$14.28

Value

$14.93

PnL

+$0.65

Record

50%

2841-2879 (5720)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.52

Value

$11.34

PnL

+$1.82

Record

46%

3240-3776 (7016)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.37

Value

$10.73

PnL

+$2.36

Record

38%

1342-2205 (3547)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.29

Value

$10.66

PnL

+$2.37

Record

38%

1342-2182 (3524)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.8

Value

$8.4

PnL

+$1.6

Record

53%

7473-6603 (14076)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.69

Value

$3.32

PnL

+$0.63

Record

38%

1318-2168 (3486)

SecondhandvinylCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.92

Value

$1.38

PnL

+$0.46

Record

78%

379-110 (489)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.6%

30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$206.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

306.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.