Will AS Saint-Étienne win on 2026-11-15?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 68¢ · $878 held · ends Nov 15

Yes68¢No32¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$878.21

Combined PnL

$22.31

Smart Money Entry

70.1¢ → 67.5¢

-4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes68%

No33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$648.29

Total Shares906

Combined PnL+$0.35

No6 traders

Total Value$229.92

Total Shares709

Combined PnL+$21.95

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-50 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 70.1¢	$184.58	$184.75	+$0.18	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 70¢	$141.31	$140	+$0.25	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
GC GC-P	Yesavg 70¢	$136.74	$136.74	+$0	42% 547-747 (1294)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Yesavg 70.5¢	$133.52	$133.44	-$0.08	56% 649-514 (1163)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 29.1¢	$94.65	$105.61	+$10.97	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 29.9¢	$44.84	$48.7	+$3.86	38% 1339-2199 (3538)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$37.26	$40.42	+$3.16	37% 1333-2226 (3559)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$27.47	$30.79	+$3.32	38% 1338-2179 (3517)
CI cigarettes<$100	Yesavg 70¢	$28	$28	+$0	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
NM NM-P<$100	Yesavg 70¢	$25.35	$25.35	+$0	59% 3948-2729 (6677)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 25.6¢	$3.35	$3.92	+$0.57	41% 1173-1667 (2840)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 25¢	$0.4	$0.48	+$0.08	35% 628-1146 (1774)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$184.58

Value

$184.75

PnL

+$0.18

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$141.31

Value

$140

PnL

+$0.25

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

GC-P

Yes

Invested

$136.74

Value

$136.74

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

547-747 (1294)

LeLynxMalynx

Yes

Invested

$133.52

Value

$133.44

PnL

-$0.08

Record

56%

649-514 (1163)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$94.65

Value

$105.61

PnL

+$10.97

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$44.84

Value

$48.7

PnL

+$3.86

Record

38%

1339-2199 (3538)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$37.26

Value

$40.42

PnL

+$3.16

Record

37%

1333-2226 (3559)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$27.47

Value

$30.79

PnL

+$3.32

Record

38%

1338-2179 (3517)

cigarettes<$100

Yes

Invested

$28

Value

$28

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

NM-P<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.35

Value

$25.35

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3948-2729 (6677)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$3.35

Value

$3.92

PnL

+$0.57

Record

41%

1173-1667 (2840)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.48

PnL

+$0.08

Record

35%

628-1146 (1774)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-50 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.