Will Grenoble Foot 38 win on 2026-11-12?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 79¢ · $217 held · ends Nov 12

Yes79¢No21¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

Total Value

$217.1

Combined PnL

$6.08

Smart Money Entry

81.3¢ → 78.5¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes79%

No22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$148.71

Total Shares185

Combined PnL-$1.52

No5 traders

Total Value$68.39

Total Shares304

Combined PnL+$7.6

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE LeLynxMalynx	Yesavg 81.7¢	$110.67	$109.04	-$1.63	52% 184-170 (354)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Noavg 18.7¢	$48.84	$56.03	+$7.19	51% 2526-2431 (4957)
MA MadridTime<$100	Yesavg 80¢	$28.4	$28.58	+$0.18	33% 556-1107 (1663)
VE Venusian<$100	Yesavg 81¢	$11.17	$11.1	-$0.07	32% 536-1124 (1660)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 19.4¢	$9.78	$9.84	+$0.06	41% 543-780 (1323)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$0.92	$1.16	+$0.24	36% 209-368 (577)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$1.08	$1.14	+$0.06	50% 1226-1249 (2475)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$0.18	$0.22	+$0.05	46% 438-515 (953)

LeLynxMalynx

Yes

Invested

$110.67

Value

$109.04

PnL

-$1.63

Record

52%

184-170 (354)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Invested

$48.84

Value

$56.03

PnL

+$7.19

Record

51%

2526-2431 (4957)

MadridTime<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.4

Value

$28.58

PnL

+$0.18

Record

33%

556-1107 (1663)

Venusian<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.17

Value

$11.1

PnL

-$0.07

Record

32%

536-1124 (1660)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$9.78

Value

$9.84

PnL

+$0.06

Record

41%

543-780 (1323)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$0.92

Value

$1.16

PnL

+$0.24

Record

36%

209-368 (577)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.14

PnL

+$0.06

Record

50%

1226-1249 (2475)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.22

PnL

+$0.05

Record

46%

438-515 (953)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 79%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.