ASPTT Dijon vs. Is-Selongey Football: O/U 2.5

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (11%) · Over at 52¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 11%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$6.92

Research grade

NeutralOver at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,114

Combined PnL-$10.99

Under8 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,137

Combined PnL+$17.91

Over — 11%Under — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI viper0310	Overavg 51.9¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$10.99	— 5-2 (7)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 48.1¢	$716.97	$730.1	+$13.13	49% 3807-3970 (7777)
poshposhCTR	Underavg 48¢	$121.43	$123.96	+$2.53	48% 1095-1172 (2267)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$56.01	$57.18	+$1.17	48% 2066-2225 (4291)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 48.1¢	$46.78	$47.66	+$0.87	42% 990-1359 (2349)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$30.72	$31.36	+$0.64	35% 104-192 (296)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$27.44	$27.44	-$0	43% 179-237 (416)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$21.65	$21.43	-$0.22	37% 966-1630 (2596)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$20.54	$20.33	-$0.21	36% 928-1642 (2570)

viper0310

Over

Invested

$1,614.53

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$10.99

Record

—

5-2 (7)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$716.97

Value

$730.1

PnL

+$13.13

Record

49%

3807-3970 (7777)

poshposhCTR

Under

Invested

$121.43

Value

$123.96

PnL

+$2.53

Record

48%

1095-1172 (2267)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$56.01

Value

$57.18

PnL

+$1.17

Record

48%

2066-2225 (4291)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$46.78

Value

$47.66

PnL

+$0.87

Record

42%

990-1359 (2349)

biying99999CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$30.72

Value

$31.36

PnL

+$0.64

Record

35%

104-192 (296)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.44

Value

$27.44

PnL

-$0

Record

43%

179-237 (416)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.65

Value

$21.43

PnL

-$0.22

Record

37%

966-1630 (2596)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20.54

Value

$20.33

PnL

-$0.21

Record

36%

928-1642 (2570)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.