Spread: Baylor Bears (-20.5)
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yale Bulldogs (33%) · Yale Bulldogs at 53¢ · $258 held · ends Nov 11
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Avoid
Yale Bulldogs
3
Yale Bulldogs 33%
$257.53
$24.21
Research grade
AvoidYale Bulldogs at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Yale Bulldogsavg 47.8¢ | $225.96 | $250.47 | +$24.51 | 50% 1387-1404 (2791) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Baylor Bearsavg 50.5¢ | $5.05 | $4.7 | -$0.35 | 23% 147-489 (636) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Baylor Bearsavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $2.35 | +$0.05 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.