Xavier Musketeers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Xavier Musketeers (25%) · Xavier Musketeers at 94¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Xavier Musketeers94¢Mississippi State Bulldogs6¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Xavier Musketeers

Consensus Traders

Xavier Musketeers 25%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$17.81

Smart Money Entry

84.5¢ → 94¢

+11% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidXavier Musketeers at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Xavier Musketeers

2 of 8 top traders (25%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Xavier Musketeers94%

Mississippi State Bulldogs6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Xavier Musketeers2 traders

Total Value$589.4

Total Shares634

Combined PnL+$53.66

Mississippi State Bulldogs6 traders

Total Value$63.7

Total Shares480

Combined PnL-$35.85

Xavier Musketeers — 25%Mississippi State Bulldogs — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Xavier Musketeersavg 84.5¢	$526.99	$580.1	+$53.11	50% 3526-3585 (7111)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Mississippi State Bulldogsavg 50¢	$525	$525	+$0	53% 750-669 (1419)
└ Xavier Musketeers leg	Xavier Musketeersavg 50¢	$262.5	$378	+$115.5
└ Mississippi State Bulldogs leg	Mississippi State Bulldogsavg 50¢	$262.5	$147	-$115.5
RN1ARB<$100	Mississippi State Bulldogsavg 18.1¢	$124.07	$102.19	-$21.88	56% 5043-4004 (9047)
└ Mississippi State Bulldogs leg	Mississippi State Bulldogsavg 18.1¢	$77.03	$53.19	-$23.84
└ Xavier Musketeers leg	Xavier Musketeersavg 84¢	$47.04	$49	+$1.96
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Mississippi State Bulldogsavg 20.6¢	$45.36	$27.47	-$17.89	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Mississippi State Bulldogsavg 19¢	$38	$25	-$13	48% 243-263 (506)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Xavier Musketeersavg 87.5¢	$8.75	$9.3	+$0.55	49% 1865-1975 (3840)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Mississippi State Bulldogsavg 19.4¢	$7.16	$4.63	-$2.54	49% 1329-1376 (2705)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Mississippi State Bulldogsavg 41.7¢	$5.69	$3.82	-$1.87	51% 141-138 (279)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Mississippi State Bulldogsavg 38¢	$1.9	$1.4	-$0.5	40% 609-910 (1519)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR<$100	Mississippi State Bulldogsavg 29¢	$1.44	$1.39	-$0.05	49% 516-536 (1052)

Flaznorp

Xavier Musketeers

Invested

$526.99

Value

$580.1

PnL

+$53.11

Record

50%

3526-3585 (7111)

NotJumpARB<$100

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Invested

$525

Value

$525

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

750-669 (1419)

Both legs:

Xavier Musketeers$262.550¢+$115.5

Mississippi State Bulldogs$262.550¢-$115.5

RN1ARB<$100

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Invested

$124.07

Value

$102.19

PnL

-$21.88

Record

56%

5043-4004 (9047)

Both legs:

Mississippi State Bulldogs$77.0318.1¢-$23.84

Xavier Musketeers$47.0484¢+$1.96

38791873984189CTR<$100

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Invested

$45.36

Value

$27.47

PnL

-$17.89

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Invested

$38

Value

$25

PnL

-$13

Record

48%

243-263 (506)

ferdinand2<$100

Xavier Musketeers

Invested

$8.75

Value

$9.3

PnL

+$0.55

Record

49%

1865-1975 (3840)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Invested

$7.16

Value

$4.63

PnL

-$2.54

Record

49%

1329-1376 (2705)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Invested

$5.69

Value

$3.82

PnL

-$1.87

Record

51%

141-138 (279)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$0.5

Record

40%

609-910 (1519)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR<$100

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Invested

$1.44

Value

$1.39

PnL

-$0.05

Record

49%

516-536 (1052)

Research grade

AvoidXavier Musketeers at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Xavier Musketeers

2 of 8 top traders (25%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Xavier Musketeers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.