Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold North Carolina Tar Heels, while the market favors Wyoming Cowboys (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: North Carolina Tar Heels (-14.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold North Carolina Tar Heels (60%) · North Carolina Tar Heels at 0.5¢ · $67 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
North Carolina Tar Heels
5
North Carolina Tar Heels 60%
$67.33
$10
Research grade
AvoidNorth Carolina Tar Heels at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Wyoming Cowboys 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on North Carolina Tar Heels. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Wyoming Cowboysavg 56.5¢ | $36.18 | $44.8 | +$8.62 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | North Carolina Tar Heelsavg 41¢ | $10.03 | $11.62 | +$1.59 | 48% 949-1019 (1968) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | North Carolina Tar Heelsavg 44¢ | $6.6 | $5.85 | -$0.75 | 26% 181-519 (700) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Wyoming Cowboysavg 56¢ | $2.8 | $3.5 | +$0.7 | 40% 234-357 (591) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | North Carolina Tar Heelsavg 43¢ | $1.72 | $1.56 | -$0.16 | 50% 1504-1508 (3012) |
Invested
$36.18
Value
$44.8
PnL
+$8.62
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$10.03
Value
$11.62
PnL
+$1.59
Record
48%
949-1019 (1968)
Invested
$6.6
Value
$5.85
PnL
-$0.75
Record
26%
181-519 (700)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$3.5
PnL
+$0.7
Record
40%
234-357 (591)
Invested
$1.72
Value
$1.56
PnL
-$0.16
Record
50%
1504-1508 (3012)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.