Wyoming Cowboys vs. Denver Pioneers

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Wyoming Cowboys (56%) · Wyoming Cowboys at 100¢ · $716 held · ended Nov 14

Wyoming Cowboys>99¢Denver Pioneers<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wyoming Cowboys

Consensus Traders

Wyoming Cowboys 56%

Total Value

$716.46

Combined PnL

-$29.97

Smart Money Entry

91.4¢ → 100¢

+9% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidWyoming Cowboys at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wyoming Cowboys

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Wyoming Cowboys100%

Denver Pioneers0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wyoming Cowboys5 traders

Total Value$709.36

Total Shares761

Combined PnL+$12.83

Denver Pioneers4 traders

Total Value$7.1

Total Shares712

Combined PnL-$42.8

Wyoming Cowboys — 56%Denver Pioneers — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Wyoming Cowboys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWyoming Cowboys 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedWyoming Cowboys 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Wyoming Cowboys 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Wyoming Cowboysavg 92¢	$365.27	$369.73	+$4.46	47% 969-1095 (2064)
RN1	Wyoming Cowboysavg 91.5¢	$260.4	$266.15	+$5.75	55% 5455-4439 (9894)
PA Pan9X<$100	Wyoming Cowboysavg 88.1¢	$36.39	$38.52	+$2.14	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
38 38791873984189<$100	Wyoming Cowboysavg 94¢	$31.02	$30.86	-$0.16	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Denver Pioneersavg 6¢	$18.9	$5.51	-$13.39	37% 1035-1784 (2819)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Wyoming Cowboysavg 50¢	$2.0K	$4.1	+$0.65	69% 134-60 (194)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Denver Pioneersavg 15¢	$0.88	$1.06	+$0.18	35% 162-305 (467)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Denver Pioneersavg 18¢	$1.08	$0.33	-$0.75	48% 2212-2378 (4590)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Denver Pioneersavg 7.5¢	$29.03	$0.19	-$28.84	49% 4068-4262 (8330)

SnakeBall

Wyoming Cowboys

Invested

$365.27

Value

$369.73

PnL

+$4.46

Record

47%

969-1095 (2064)

RN1

Wyoming Cowboys

Invested

$260.4

Value

$266.15

PnL

+$5.75

Record

55%

5455-4439 (9894)

Pan9X<$100

Wyoming Cowboys

Invested

$36.39

Value

$38.52

PnL

+$2.14

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

38791873984189<$100

Wyoming Cowboys

Invested

$31.02

Value

$30.86

PnL

-$0.16

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

VenusianCTR<$100

Denver Pioneers

Invested

$18.9

Value

$5.51

PnL

-$13.39

Record

37%

1035-1784 (2819)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Wyoming Cowboys

Invested

$1,996

Value

$4.1

PnL

+$0.65

Record

69%

134-60 (194)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Denver Pioneers

Invested

$0.88

Value

$1.06

PnL

+$0.18

Record

35%

162-305 (467)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Denver Pioneers

Invested

$1.08

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$0.75

Record

48%

2212-2378 (4590)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Denver Pioneers

Invested

$29.03

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$28.84

Record

49%

4068-4262 (8330)

Research grade

AvoidWyoming Cowboys at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Wyoming Cowboys

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Wyoming Cowboys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWyoming Cowboys 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedWyoming Cowboys 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Wyoming Cowboys 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wyoming Cowboys wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.