Western Michigan Broncos vs. Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Western Michigan Broncos (44%) · Western Michigan Broncos at 71¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13

Western Michigan Broncos71¢Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons29¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

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Western Michigan Broncos

Consensus Traders

Western Michigan Broncos 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$182.29

Smart Money Entry

54.2¢ → 71¢

+31% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidWestern Michigan Broncos at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Western Michigan Broncos

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Western Michigan Broncos71%

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons29%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Western Michigan Broncos4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,807

Combined PnL+$242.31

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons5 traders

Total Value$622.77

Total Shares1,534

Combined PnL-$60.02

Western Michigan Broncos — 44%Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Western Michigan Broncosavg 55.1¢	$528.45	$743.08	+$214.64	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
HI hi774cCTR	Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodonsavg 45¢	$559.95	$510.85	-$49.11	19% 127-534 (661)
0xheavy888	Western Michigan Broncosavg 54¢	$358.56	$356.95	+$27.89	56% 312-248 (560)
RN1ARB<$100	Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodonsavg 41¢	$362.79	$354.96	-$7.83	56% 4589-3558 (8147)
└ Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons leg	Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodonsavg 41¢	$214.02	$187.92	-$26.1
└ Western Michigan Broncos leg	Western Michigan Broncosavg 57¢	$148.77	$167.04	+$18.27
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Western Michigan Broncosavg 50¢	$3.8K	$200	+$0	82% 97-22 (119)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodonsavg 40¢	$56.78	$51.12	-$5.66	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodonsavg 41¢	$41	$36	-$5	46% 180-208 (388)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Western Michigan Broncosavg 55¢	$23.76	$23.54	-$0.22	49% 1386-1434 (2820)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodonsavg 45¢	$22.5	$22.75	+$0.25	29% 105-255 (360)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodonsavg 45¢	$9	$2.05	-$0.5	49% 1100-1151 (2251)

Flaznorp

Western Michigan Broncos

Invested

$528.45

Value

$743.08

PnL

+$214.64

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

hi774cCTR

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons

Invested

$559.95

Value

$510.85

PnL

-$49.11

Record

19%

127-534 (661)

0xheavy888

Western Michigan Broncos

Invested

$358.56

Value

$356.95

PnL

+$27.89

Record

56%

312-248 (560)

RN1ARB<$100

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons

Invested

$362.79

Value

$354.96

PnL

-$7.83

Record

56%

4589-3558 (8147)

Both legs:

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons$214.0241¢-$26.1

Western Michigan Broncos$148.7757¢+$18.27

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Western Michigan Broncos

Invested

$3,800

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

82%

97-22 (119)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons

Invested

$56.78

Value

$51.12

PnL

-$5.66

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons

Invested

$41

Value

$36

PnL

-$5

Record

46%

180-208 (388)

ferdinand2<$100

Western Michigan Broncos

Invested

$23.76

Value

$23.54

PnL

-$0.22

Record

49%

1386-1434 (2820)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons

Invested

$22.5

Value

$22.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

29%

105-255 (360)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons

Invested

Value

$2.05

PnL

-$0.5

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

Research grade

AvoidWestern Michigan Broncos at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Western Michigan Broncos

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Western Michigan Broncos wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.