William & Mary Tribe vs. Florida Atlantic Owls

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Florida Atlantic Owls (63%) · Florida Atlantic Owls at 53¢ · $232 held · ended Nov 12

William & Mary Tribe48¢Florida Atlantic Owls52¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Florida Atlantic Owls

Consensus Traders

Florida Atlantic Owls 63%

Total Value

$232.11

Combined PnL

-$13.63

Research grade

AvoidFlorida Atlantic Owls at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Florida Atlantic Owls

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

William & Mary Tribe48%

Florida Atlantic Owls53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

William & Mary Tribe3 traders

Total Value$186.02

Total Shares397

Combined PnL-$2.81

Florida Atlantic Owls5 traders

Total Value$45.78

Total Shares77

Combined PnL-$10.83

William & Mary Tribe — 38%Florida Atlantic Owls — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Florida Atlantic Owls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on William & Mary Tribe) and the top 1000 (8 on Florida Atlantic Owls) disagree here.

ctrWilliam & Mary Tribe 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedWilliam & Mary Tribe 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Florida Atlantic Owls 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AV averagejoetradersCTR<$100	William & Mary Tribeavg 45.9¢	$83.77	$88.51	+$4.74	56% 722-565 (1287)
0X 0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfeshCTR<$100	William & Mary Tribeavg 52¢	$83.77	$73.3	-$10.47	6% 28-440 (468)
RN1CTR<$100	William & Mary Tribeavg 40¢	$21.29	$24.21	+$2.93	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
PA Pan9X<$100	Florida Atlantic Owlsavg 58.4¢	$27.14	$23.08	-$1.66	49% 693-734 (1427)
TH thirdt1me<$100	Florida Atlantic Owlsavg 77¢	$21.56	$14.56	-$7	43% 125-167 (292)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Florida Atlantic Owlsavg 66¢	$3.59	$2.97	-$0.63	55% 719-584 (1303)
38 38791873984189<$100	Florida Atlantic Owlsavg 69¢	$3.45	$2.6	-$0.85	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Florida Atlantic Owlsavg 66¢	$3.27	$2.57	-$0.69	57% 3229-2433 (5662)

averagejoetradersCTR<$100

William & Mary Tribe

Invested

$83.77

Value

$88.51

PnL

+$4.74

Record

56%

722-565 (1287)

0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfeshCTR<$100

William & Mary Tribe

Invested

$83.77

Value

$73.3

PnL

-$10.47

Record

28-440 (468)

RN1CTR<$100

William & Mary Tribe

Invested

$21.29

Value

$24.21

PnL

+$2.93

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

Pan9X<$100

Florida Atlantic Owls

Invested

$27.14

Value

$23.08

PnL

-$1.66

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

thirdt1me<$100

Florida Atlantic Owls

Invested

$21.56

Value

$14.56

PnL

-$7

Record

43%

125-167 (292)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Florida Atlantic Owls

Invested

$3.59

Value

$2.97

PnL

-$0.63

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

38791873984189<$100

Florida Atlantic Owls

Invested

$3.45

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$0.85

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Florida Atlantic Owls

Invested

$3.27

Value

$2.57

PnL

-$0.69

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

Research grade

AvoidFlorida Atlantic Owls at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Florida Atlantic Owls

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Florida Atlantic Owls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on William & Mary Tribe) and the top 1000 (8 on Florida Atlantic Owls) disagree here.

ctrWilliam & Mary Tribe 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedWilliam & Mary Tribe 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Florida Atlantic Owls 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Florida Atlantic Owls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.