Winthrop Eagles vs. Kennesaw State Owls: O/U 167.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 55¢ · $215 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 50%
$214.97
$7.24
52.8¢ → 55¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 54¢ | $123.77 | $126.01 | +$2.24 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 43.9¢ | $48.33 | $48.98 | +$0.65 | 49% 231-238 (469) |
BA Bayupati<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $24 | $28 | +$4 | 5% 6-120 (126) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $7.02 | $7.6 | +$0.58 | 50% 1407-1409 (2816) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $2.25 | $2.23 | -$0.02 | 24% 155-504 (659) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $2.15 | -$0.2 | 31% 169-382 (551) |
Invested
$123.77
Value
$126.01
PnL
+$2.24
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$48.33
Value
$48.98
PnL
+$0.65
Record
49%
231-238 (469)
Invested
$24
Value
$28
PnL
+$4
Record
5%
6-120 (126)
Invested
$7.02
Value
$7.6
PnL
+$0.58
Record
50%
1407-1409 (2816)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$2.23
PnL
-$0.02
Record
24%
155-504 (659)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.15
PnL
-$0.2
Record
31%
169-382 (551)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.