Spread: Kennesaw State Owls (-9.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Kennesaw State Owls (60%) · Kennesaw State Owls at 55¢ · $85 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Kennesaw State Owls
5
Kennesaw State Owls 60%
$84.62
$2.66
Research grade
AvoidKennesaw State Owls at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Kennesaw State Owls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Winthrop Eaglesavg 45¢ | $55.35 | $56.58 | +$1.23 | 50% 1407-1409 (2816) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Kennesaw State Owlsavg 48¢ | $11.7 | $12.92 | +$1.22 | 48% 840-912 (1752) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Winthrop Eaglesavg 46¢ | $9.24 | $7.37 | +$0.29 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Kennesaw State Owlsavg 54¢ | $5.15 | $5 | -$0.15 | 24% 155-504 (659) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Kennesaw State Owlsavg 53¢ | $2.67 | $2.75 | +$0.08 | 49% 231-238 (469) |
Invested
$55.35
Value
$56.58
PnL
+$1.23
Record
50%
1407-1409 (2816)
Invested
$11.7
Value
$12.92
PnL
+$1.22
Record
48%
840-912 (1752)
Invested
$9.24
Value
$7.37
PnL
+$0.29
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$5.15
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.15
Record
24%
155-504 (659)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$2.67
Value
$2.75
PnL
+$0.08
Record
49%
231-238 (469)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.