Spread: Utah Utes (-18.5)
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Weber State Wildcats (29%) · Weber State Wildcats at 57¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Weber State Wildcats
7
Weber State Wildcats 29%
$1.2K
-$4.89
55.6¢ → 57.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidWeber State Wildcats at 57%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Weber State Wildcats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Weber State Wildcatsavg 55.5¢ | $809.22 | $816.03 | +$6.81 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Utah Utesavg 46¢ | $153.18 | $143.19 | -$9.99 | 56% 108-86 (194) |
 VeryLucky888 | Weber State Wildcatsavg 56.5¢ | $113 | $112 | -$1 | 49% 235-240 (475) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100 | Utah Utesavg 43¢ | $86.33 | $86.33 | +$0 | 3% 7-227 (234) |
FO forecastication4CTR<$100 | Utah Utesavg 45¢ | $4.27 | $4.08 | -$0.19 | 11% 24-188 (212) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Utah Utesavg 47¢ | $3.74 | $3.42 | -$0.32 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Utah Utesavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $2.15 | -$0.2 | 31% 170-384 (554) |
Invested
$809.22
Value
$816.03
PnL
+$6.81
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$153.18
Value
$143.19
PnL
-$9.99
Record
56%
108-86 (194)
VeryLucky888Invested
$113
Value
$112
PnL
-$1
Record
49%
235-240 (475)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100Invested
$86.33
Value
$86.33
PnL
+$0
Record
3%
7-227 (234)
Invested
$4.27
Value
$4.08
PnL
-$0.19
Record
11%
24-188 (212)
Invested
$3.74
Value
$3.42
PnL
-$0.32
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.15
PnL
-$0.2
Record
31%
170-384 (554)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.