Spread: Indiana State Sycamores (-5.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Milwaukee Panthers (75%) · Milwaukee Panthers at 81¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 12

Indiana State Sycamores20¢Milwaukee Panthers80¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Milwaukee Panthers

Consensus Traders

Milwaukee Panthers 75%

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

53.4¢ → 80.5¢

+51% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidMilwaukee Panthers at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Milwaukee Panthers

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Indiana State Sycamores20%

Milwaukee Panthers81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Milwaukee Panthers6 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares5,800

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Indiana State Sycamores2 traders

Total Value$5.25

Total Shares19

Combined PnL-$3.03

Milwaukee Panthers — 75%Indiana State Sycamores — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Milwaukee Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMilwaukee Panthers 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedMilwaukee Panthers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Milwaukee Panthers 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Milwaukee Panthersavg 53.5¢	$2.5K	$3.7K	+$1.2K	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
0xheavy888	Milwaukee Panthersavg 53¢	$352.98	$522.81	+$169.83	55% 205-165 (370)
38 38791873984189	Milwaukee Panthersavg 53¢	$187.03	$273.72	+$86.7	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
VeryLucky888<$100	Milwaukee Panthersavg 53¢	$53	$78.5	+$25.5	52% 497-452 (949)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Milwaukee Panthersavg 54.5¢	$5.45	$7.85	+$2.4	34% 327-634 (961)
PA Pan9X<$100	Milwaukee Panthersavg 53¢	$4.59	$5.91	+$1.32	49% 692-733 (1425)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Indiana State Sycamoresavg 44.4¢	$6.08	$2.95	-$3.13	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Indiana State Sycamoresavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.3	+$0.1	39% 394-619 (1013)

HomeRunHazard

Milwaukee Panthers

Invested

$2,496.88

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

0xheavy888

Milwaukee Panthers

Invested

$352.98

Value

$522.81

PnL

+$169.83

Record

55%

205-165 (370)

38791873984189

Milwaukee Panthers

Invested

$187.03

Value

$273.72

PnL

+$86.7

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

VeryLucky888<$100

Milwaukee Panthers

Invested

$53

Value

$78.5

PnL

+$25.5

Record

52%

497-452 (949)

ameisgoat11<$100

Milwaukee Panthers

Invested

$5.45

Value

$7.85

PnL

+$2.4

Record

34%

327-634 (961)

Pan9X<$100

Milwaukee Panthers

Invested

$4.59

Value

$5.91

PnL

+$1.32

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Indiana State Sycamores

Invested

$6.08

Value

$2.95

PnL

-$3.13

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

sentrioCTR<$100

Indiana State Sycamores

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

39%

394-619 (1013)

Research grade

AvoidMilwaukee Panthers at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Milwaukee Panthers

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Milwaukee Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMilwaukee Panthers 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedMilwaukee Panthers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Milwaukee Panthers 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Milwaukee Panthers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.