Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Milwaukee Panthers, while the market favors Indiana State Sycamores (50%). 0 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Indiana State Sycamores (-4.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Milwaukee Panthers (60%) · Milwaukee Panthers at 50¢ · $467 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Milwaukee Panthers
5
Milwaukee Panthers 60%
$467.14
$1.3
49.1¢ → 50¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidMilwaukee Panthers at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Indiana State Sycamores 50%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Milwaukee Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Milwaukee Panthersavg 49¢ | $333.65 | $333.65 | +$0 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Milwaukee Panthersavg 49.5¢ | $99 | $98 | -$1 | 52% 464-433 (897) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Indiana State Sycamoresavg 47.1¢ | $25.94 | $28.09 | +$2.15 | 51% 1853-1805 (3658) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Milwaukee Panthersavg 51¢ | $4.9 | $5 | +$0.1 | 32% 297-622 (919) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Indiana State Sycamoresavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $2.4 | +$0.05 | 38% 352-584 (936) |
Invested
$333.65
Value
$333.65
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$99
Value
$98
PnL
-$1
Record
52%
464-433 (897)
Invested
$25.94
Value
$28.09
PnL
+$2.15
Record
51%
1853-1805 (3658)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
32%
297-622 (919)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.4
PnL
+$0.05
Record
38%
352-584 (936)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.