Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Duquesne Dukes, while the market favors Washington State Cougars (51%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Duquesne Dukes (-3.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Duquesne Dukes (60%) · Duquesne Dukes at 50¢ · $342 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Duquesne Dukes
5
Duquesne Dukes 60%
$341.58
-$9.79
52.8¢ → 49.5¢
-6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidDuquesne Dukes at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Washington State Cougars 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Duquesne Dukes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Washington State Cougarsavg 46.9¢ | $160.05 | $167.12 | +$7.07 | 50% 1407-1409 (2816) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Duquesne Dukesavg 53¢ | $176.48 | $159.83 | -$16.65 | 55% 106-85 (191) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Duquesne Dukesavg 48¢ | $7.68 | $7.68 | +$0 | 49% 231-238 (469) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Washington State Cougarsavg 49¢ | $4.41 | $4.55 | +$0.13 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Duquesne Dukesavg 55¢ | $2.75 | $2.4 | -$0.35 | 24% 155-504 (659) |
Invested
$160.05
Value
$167.12
PnL
+$7.07
Record
50%
1407-1409 (2816)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$176.48
Value
$159.83
PnL
-$16.65
Record
55%
106-85 (191)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$7.68
Value
$7.68
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
231-238 (469)
Invested
$4.41
Value
$4.55
PnL
+$0.13
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$2.75
Value
$2.4
PnL
-$0.35
Record
24%
155-504 (659)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.