Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Washington State Cougars, while the market favors Duquesne Dukes (61%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Washington State Cougars vs. Duquesne Dukes
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Washington State Cougars (40%) · Washington State Cougars at 40¢ · $238 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Washington State Cougars
5
Washington State Cougars 40%
$238.2
$1.58
38.8¢ → 39.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidWashington State Cougars at 40%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Duquesne Dukes 61%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Washington State Cougars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Washington State Cougarsavg 39¢ | $180.38 | $182.77 | +$2.39 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Duquesne Dukesavg 62.2¢ | $35.01 | $34.07 | -$0.93 | 48% 767-833 (1600) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Washington State Cougarsavg 36¢ | $9.07 | $9.95 | +$0.88 | 24% 202-637 (839) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Duquesne Dukesavg 64¢ | $8.96 | $8.4 | -$0.56 | 50% 1387-1404 (2791) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Duquesne Dukesavg 64¢ | $3.2 | $3 | -$0.2 | 30% 160-377 (537) |
Invested
$180.38
Value
$182.77
PnL
+$2.39
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$35.01
Value
$34.07
PnL
-$0.93
Record
48%
767-833 (1600)
Invested
$9.07
Value
$9.95
PnL
+$0.88
Record
24%
202-637 (839)
Invested
$8.96
Value
$8.4
PnL
-$0.56
Record
50%
1387-1404 (2791)
Invested
$3.2
Value
$3
PnL
-$0.2
Record
30%
160-377 (537)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.