Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Valparaiso Beacons, while the market favors South Dakota State Jackrabbits (73%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Valparaiso Beacons (-1.5)

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Valparaiso Beacons (83%) · Valparaiso Beacons at 28¢ · $364 held · ended Nov 12

Valparaiso Beacons28¢South Dakota State Jackrabbits72¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Valparaiso Beacons

Consensus Traders

Valparaiso Beacons 83%

Total Value

$364.31

Combined PnL

-$70.34

Smart Money Entry

49.6¢ → 27.5¢

-45% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidValparaiso Beacons at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Valparaiso Beacons

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors South Dakota State Jackrabbits 73%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Valparaiso Beacons28%

South Dakota State Jackrabbits73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Valparaiso Beacons5 traders

Total Value$347.24

Total Shares846

Combined PnL-$70.69

South Dakota State Jackrabbits1 trader

Total Value$17.06

Total Shares34

Combined PnL+$0.34

Valparaiso Beacons — 83%South Dakota State Jackrabbits — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Valparaiso Beacons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrValparaiso Beacons 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedValparaiso Beacons 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Valparaiso Beacons 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Valparaiso Beaconsavg 50¢	$143	$140.14	-$2.86	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
0xheavy888CTR	Valparaiso Beaconsavg 49¢	$163.17	$123.21	-$39.96	55% 205-165 (370)
VeryLucky888CTR	Valparaiso Beaconsavg 49.4¢	$115.52	$47.79	-$14.3	52% 497-453 (950)
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100	Valparaiso Beaconsavg 51¢	$47.22	$34.26	-$12.96	49% 58-61 (119)
FL Flaznorp<$100	South Dakota State Jackrabbitsavg 49¢	$16.72	$17.06	+$0.34	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Valparaiso Beaconsavg 49¢	$2.45	$1.85	-$0.6	34% 328-634 (962)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Valparaiso Beacons

Invested

$143

Value

$140.14

PnL

-$2.86

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

0xheavy888CTR

Valparaiso Beacons

Invested

$163.17

Value

$123.21

PnL

-$39.96

Record

55%

205-165 (370)

VeryLucky888CTR

Valparaiso Beacons

Invested

$115.52

Value

$47.79

PnL

-$14.3

Record

52%

497-453 (950)

glennyorkshireCTR<$100

Valparaiso Beacons

Invested

$47.22

Value

$34.26

PnL

-$12.96

Record

49%

58-61 (119)

Flaznorp<$100

South Dakota State Jackrabbits

Invested

$16.72

Value

$17.06

PnL

+$0.34

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Valparaiso Beacons

Invested

$2.45

Value

$1.85

PnL

-$0.6

Record

34%

328-634 (962)

Research grade

AvoidValparaiso Beacons at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Valparaiso Beacons

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors South Dakota State Jackrabbits 73%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Valparaiso Beacons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrValparaiso Beacons 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedValparaiso Beacons 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Valparaiso Beacons 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Valparaiso Beacons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.5%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$238.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

338.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.