Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold South Dakota State Jackrabbits, while the market favors Valparaiso Beacons (54%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Valparaiso Beacons vs. South Dakota State Jackrabbits

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold South Dakota State Jackrabbits (67%) · South Dakota State Jackrabbits at 47¢ · $701 held · ends Nov 12

Valparaiso Beacons54¢South Dakota State Jackrabbits46¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

South Dakota State Jackrabbits

Consensus Traders

South Dakota State Jackrabbits 67%

Total Value

$700.68

Combined PnL

-$6.93

Smart Money Entry

46.9¢ → 46.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidSouth Dakota State Jackrabbits at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

South Dakota State Jackrabbits

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Valparaiso Beacons 54%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Valparaiso Beacons54%

South Dakota State Jackrabbits47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

South Dakota State Jackrabbits4 traders

Total Value$482.45

Total Shares948

Combined PnL-$8.97

Valparaiso Beacons2 traders

Total Value$218.23

Total Shares408

Combined PnL+$2.04

South Dakota State Jackrabbits — 67%Valparaiso Beacons — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on South Dakota State Jackrabbits. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrValparaiso Beacons 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000South Dakota State Jackrabbits 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	South Dakota State Jackrabbitsavg 47¢	$256.45	$252.03	-$4.42	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
SN SnakeBall	Valparaiso Beaconsavg 53¢	$212.48	$214.49	+$2	45% 267-323 (590)
FL FlaznorpCTR	South Dakota State Jackrabbitsavg 47¢	$173.47	$169.78	-$3.69	51% 1861-1809 (3670)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	South Dakota State Jackrabbitsavg 47¢	$40.53	$39.66	-$0.86	38% 358-588 (946)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	South Dakota State Jackrabbitsavg 46¢	$20.98	$20.98	+$0	48% 1401-1536 (2937)
PA Pan9X<$100	Valparaiso Beaconsavg 53¢	$3.71	$3.75	+$0.04	49% 678-717 (1395)

HomeRunHazardCTR

South Dakota State Jackrabbits

Invested

$256.45

Value

$252.03

PnL

-$4.42

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

SnakeBall

Valparaiso Beacons

Invested

$212.48

Value

$214.49

PnL

+$2

Record

45%

267-323 (590)

FlaznorpCTR

South Dakota State Jackrabbits

Invested

$173.47

Value

$169.78

PnL

-$3.69

Record

51%

1861-1809 (3670)

sentrioCTR<$100

South Dakota State Jackrabbits

Invested

$40.53

Value

$39.66

PnL

-$0.86

Record

38%

358-588 (946)

38791873984189CTR<$100

South Dakota State Jackrabbits

Invested

$20.98

Value

$20.98

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

1401-1536 (2937)

Pan9X<$100

Valparaiso Beacons

Invested

$3.71

Value

$3.75

PnL

+$0.04

Record

49%

678-717 (1395)

Research grade

AvoidSouth Dakota State Jackrabbits at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

South Dakota State Jackrabbits

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Valparaiso Beacons 54%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on South Dakota State Jackrabbits. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrValparaiso Beacons 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000South Dakota State Jackrabbits 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that South Dakota State Jackrabbits wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.