Valparaiso Beacons vs. Purdue Boilermakers

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Purdue Boilermakers (50%) · Purdue Boilermakers at 84¢ · $380 held · ended Nov 6

Valparaiso Beacons16¢Purdue Boilermakers84¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Purdue Boilermakers

Consensus Traders

Purdue Boilermakers 50%

Total Value

$380.32

Combined PnL

-$43.28

Smart Money Entry

95.2¢ → 83.7¢

-12% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidPurdue Boilermakers at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Purdue Boilermakers

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Valparaiso Beacons16%

Purdue Boilermakers84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Purdue Boilermakers5 traders

Total Value$367.74

Total Shares420

Combined PnL-$29.11

Valparaiso Beacons5 traders

Total Value$12.58

Total Shares585

Combined PnL-$14.17

Purdue Boilermakers — 50%Valparaiso Beacons — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Purdue Boilermakersavg 96¢	$512.69	$255.37	-$42.63	48% 62002-66846 (128848)
PA Pan9X	Purdue Boilermakersavg 97.2¢	$173.54	$68.76	-$10.79	54% 10159-8530 (18689)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Purdue Boilermakersavg 83.7¢	$23	$22.53	-$0.47	59% 33122-23288 (56410)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Purdue Boilermakersavg 95.5¢	$269.4	$18.27	+$24.3	56% 8430-6558 (14988)
RN1CTR<$100	Valparaiso Beaconsavg 0.8¢	$4	$6	+$2	53% 61880-54166 (116046)
dips.CTR<$100	Valparaiso Beaconsavg 36.1¢	$12.72	$5.98	-$6.74	47% 10837-12404 (23241)
CI cigarettes<$100	Purdue Boilermakersavg 70¢	$2.33	$2.8	+$0.47	53% 24089-21161 (45250)
AV averagejoetradersCTR<$100	Valparaiso Beaconsavg 22.9¢	$5.71	$0.3	-$5.41	57% 668-513 (1181)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100	Valparaiso Beaconsavg 26.3¢	$3.92	$0.18	-$3.74	53% 596-534 (1130)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Valparaiso Beaconsavg 4¢	$0.4	$0.12	-$0.28	46% 5267-6108 (11375)

38791873984189

Purdue Boilermakers

Invested

$512.69

Value

$255.37

PnL

-$42.63

Record

48%

62002-66846 (128848)

Pan9X

Purdue Boilermakers

Invested

$173.54

Value

$68.76

PnL

-$10.79

Record

54%

10159-8530 (18689)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Purdue Boilermakers

Invested

$23

Value

$22.53

PnL

-$0.47

Record

59%

33122-23288 (56410)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Purdue Boilermakers

Invested

$269.4

Value

$18.27

PnL

+$24.3

Record

56%

8430-6558 (14988)

RN1CTR<$100

Valparaiso Beacons

Invested

Value

PnL

+$2

Record

53%

61880-54166 (116046)

dips.CTR<$100

Valparaiso Beacons

Invested

$12.72

Value

$5.98

PnL

-$6.74

Record

47%

10837-12404 (23241)

cigarettes<$100

Purdue Boilermakers

Invested

$2.33

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0.47

Record

53%

24089-21161 (45250)

averagejoetradersCTR<$100

Valparaiso Beacons

Invested

$5.71

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$5.41

Record

57%

668-513 (1181)

oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100

Valparaiso Beacons

Invested

$3.92

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$3.74

Record

53%

596-534 (1130)

hi774cCTR<$100

Valparaiso Beacons

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$0.28

Record

46%

5267-6108 (11375)

Research grade

AvoidPurdue Boilermakers at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Purdue Boilermakers

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Purdue Boilermakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.3%

83.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.