West Georgia Wolves vs. Charleston Southern Buccaneers: O/U 148.5

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 52¢ · $344 held · ends Nov 15

Over49¢Under51¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 20%

Total Value

$344.31

Combined PnL

$26.29

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$238.93

Total Shares447

Combined PnL+$21.09

Under1 trader

Total Value$105.38

Total Shares205

Combined PnL+$5.2

Over — 80%Under — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 47¢	$92.99	$105.85	+$12.86	49% 3815-3978 (7793)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 49¢	$100.18	$105.38	+$5.2	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 52¢	$52	$53.5	+$1.5	53% 1348-1174 (2522)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$49	$52.42	+$3.43	32% 99-207 (306)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$23.86	$27.16	+$3.3	18% 31-145 (176)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$92.99

Value

$105.85

PnL

+$12.86

Record

49%

3815-3978 (7793)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$100.18

Value

$105.38

PnL

+$5.2

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$52

Value

$53.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

53%

1348-1174 (2522)

OddstormCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$49

Value

$52.42

PnL

+$3.43

Record

32%

99-207 (306)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$23.86

Value

$27.16

PnL

+$3.3

Record

18%

31-145 (176)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.