Spread: Seattle Redhawks (-15.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold UTSA Roadrunners (50%) · UTSA Roadrunners at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Seattle Redhawks1¢UTSA Roadrunners99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

UTSA Roadrunners

Consensus Traders

UTSA Roadrunners 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$298.51

Smart Money Entry

45.8¢ → 98.6¢

+115% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUTSA Roadrunners at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UTSA Roadrunners

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Seattle Redhawks1%

UTSA Roadrunners99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UTSA Roadrunners4 traders

Total Value$907.27

Total Shares989

Combined PnL+$465.4

Seattle Redhawks4 traders

Total Value$196.39

Total Shares951

Combined PnL-$166.88

UTSA Roadrunners — 50%Seattle Redhawks — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on UTSA Roadrunners. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSeattle Redhawks 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUTSA Roadrunners 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000UTSA Roadrunners 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	UTSA Roadrunnersavg 44¢	$151.6	$339.44	+$187.84	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
OD Oddstorm	UTSA Roadrunnersavg 44¢	$151.33	$339.16	+$187.83	23% 38-129 (167)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Seattle Redhawksavg 53.4¢	$201.84	$226.14	+$24.29	57% 3276-2473 (5749)
└ Seattle Redhawks leg	Seattle Redhawksavg 53.4¢	$155	$159.71	+$4.71
└ UTSA Roadrunners leg	UTSA Roadrunnersavg 45.8¢	$46.85	$66.43	+$19.58
IC ic4creamCTR	Seattle Redhawksavg 50¢	$161.5	$177.65	+$16.15	3% 12-449 (461)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	UTSA Roadrunnersavg 50¢	$250	$130	+$38	100% 71-0 (71)
38 38791873984189	UTSA Roadrunnersavg 50¢	$169.25	$98.67	+$51.73	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Seattle Redhawksavg 16.3¢	$8.82	$7.4	-$1.42	49% 786-829 (1615)
RN1CTR<$100	Seattle Redhawksavg 3¢	$9.81	$6.68	-$3.12	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
0xheavy888CTR	Seattle Redhawksavg 55¢	$183.15	$4.66	-$178.49	55% 218-176 (394)

Flaznorp

UTSA Roadrunners

Invested

$151.6

Value

$339.44

PnL

+$187.84

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

Oddstorm

UTSA Roadrunners

Invested

$151.33

Value

$339.16

PnL

+$187.83

Record

23%

38-129 (167)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Seattle Redhawks

Invested

$201.84

Value

$226.14

PnL

+$24.29

Record

57%

3276-2473 (5749)

Both legs:

Seattle Redhawks$15553.4¢+$4.71

UTSA Roadrunners$46.8545.8¢+$19.58

ic4creamCTR

Seattle Redhawks

Invested

$161.5

Value

$177.65

PnL

+$16.15

Record

12-449 (461)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

UTSA Roadrunners

Invested

$250

Value

$130

PnL

+$38

Record

100%

71-0 (71)

38791873984189

UTSA Roadrunners

Invested

$169.25

Value

$98.67

PnL

+$51.73

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Seattle Redhawks

Invested

$8.82

Value

$7.4

PnL

-$1.42

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

RN1CTR<$100

Seattle Redhawks

Invested

$9.81

Value

$6.68

PnL

-$3.12

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

0xheavy888CTR

Seattle Redhawks

Invested

$183.15

Value

$4.66

PnL

-$178.49

Record

55%

218-176 (394)

Research grade

AvoidUTSA Roadrunners at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

UTSA Roadrunners

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on UTSA Roadrunners. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSeattle Redhawks 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUTSA Roadrunners 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000UTSA Roadrunners 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UTSA Roadrunners wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.