Utah Valley Wolverines vs. Nevada Wolf Pack: O/U 152.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 83¢ · $253 held · ended Nov 15

Over18¢Under82¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

Total Value

$253.28

Combined PnL

$1.79

Smart Money Entry

50.5¢ → 82.5¢

+63% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over18%

Under83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$172.8

Total Shares339

Combined PnL+$1.53

Over3 traders

Total Value$80.48

Total Shares168

Combined PnL+$0.26

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 50.9¢	$141.87	$142.2	+$0.33	56% 3811-2982 (6793)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$73.5	$72	-$1.5	48% 3662-4031 (7693)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Underavg 49¢	$29.4	$30.6	+$1.2	45% 298-371 (669)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$5.79	$5.79	+$0	54% 1714-1481 (3195)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 17¢	$0.93	$2.69	+$1.76	48% 4388-4660 (9048)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$141.87

Value

$142.2

PnL

+$0.33

Record

56%

3811-2982 (6793)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$73.5

Value

$72

PnL

-$1.5

Record

48%

3662-4031 (7693)

Forecastication2<$100

Under

Invested

$29.4

Value

$30.6

PnL

+$1.2

Record

45%

298-371 (669)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.79

Value

$5.79

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

1714-1481 (3195)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.93

Value

$2.69

PnL

+$1.76

Record

48%

4388-4660 (9048)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.