Utah Valley Wolverines vs. Nevada Wolf Pack

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Utah Valley Wolverines (42%) · Utah Valley Wolverines at 67¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Utah Valley Wolverines67¢Nevada Wolf Pack33¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Utah Valley Wolverines

Consensus Traders

Utah Valley Wolverines 42%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$20.97

Smart Money Entry

47.9¢ → 66.5¢

+39% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUtah Valley Wolverines at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Utah Valley Wolverines

5 of 12 top traders (42%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Utah Valley Wolverines67%

Nevada Wolf Pack34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Utah Valley Wolverines5 traders

Total Value$568.46

Total Shares620

Combined PnL+$6.46

Nevada Wolf Pack7 traders

Total Value$230.79

Total Shares364

Combined PnL+$14.51

Utah Valley Wolverines — 42%Nevada Wolf Pack — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJump	Utah Valley Wolverinesavg 50¢	$525	$525	+$0	51% 994-962 (1956)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Nevada Wolf Packavg 59.7¢	$647.81	$487.87	-$91.73	49% 4352-4620 (8972)
└ Utah Valley Wolverines leg	Utah Valley Wolverinesavg 42.9¢	$163.83	$269.25	+$132.42
└ Nevada Wolf Pack leg	Nevada Wolf Packavg 59.7¢	$442.78	$218.62	-$224.15
RN1ARB<$100	Nevada Wolf Packavg 66.1¢	$284.2	$191.64	-$92.56	55% 5758-4807 (10565)
└ Utah Valley Wolverines leg	Utah Valley Wolverinesavg 64.2¢	$101.34	$112.78	+$11.44
└ Nevada Wolf Pack leg	Nevada Wolf Packavg 66.1¢	$182.86	$78.86	-$104
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Nevada Wolf Packavg 68.3¢	$74.81	$90.41	+$15.6	48% 326-352 (678)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Nevada Wolf Packavg 49¢	$66.06	$65.39	-$0.67	38% 1202-1984 (3186)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Nevada Wolf Packavg 63.5¢	$42.37	$42.57	+$0.2	83% 882-182 (1064)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Utah Valley Wolverinesavg 44¢	$22	$22	+$0	34% 174-332 (506)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Utah Valley Wolverinesavg 40¢	$11.18	$17.43	+$6.25	50% 2696-2676 (5372)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Nevada Wolf Packavg 71¢	$12.07	$14.02	+$1.95	50% 1850-1880 (3730)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Nevada Wolf Packavg 50¢	$13.58	$13.31	-$0.27	38% 1223-2021 (3244)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Nevada Wolf Packavg 42.4¢	$4.39	$3.05	-$1.34	48% 2348-2563 (4911)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Utah Valley Wolverinesavg 18¢	$2.22	$2.16	-$0.06	47% 1088-1236 (2324)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100	Nevada Wolf Packavg 50¢	$3	$2.04	-$0.96	45% 143-175 (318)
CI cigarettes<$100	Utah Valley Wolverinesavg 15¢	$1.6	$1.87	+$0.27	53% 7331-6407 (13738)

NotJump

Utah Valley Wolverines

Invested

$525

Value

$525

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

994-962 (1956)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Nevada Wolf Pack

Invested

$647.81

Value

$487.87

PnL

-$91.73

Record

49%

4352-4620 (8972)

Both legs:

Utah Valley Wolverines$163.8342.9¢+$132.42

Nevada Wolf Pack$442.7859.7¢-$224.15

RN1ARB<$100

Nevada Wolf Pack

Invested

$284.2

Value

$191.64

PnL

-$92.56

Record

55%

5758-4807 (10565)

Both legs:

Utah Valley Wolverines$101.3464.2¢+$11.44

Nevada Wolf Pack$182.8666.1¢-$104

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Nevada Wolf Pack

Invested

$74.81

Value

$90.41

PnL

+$15.6

Record

48%

326-352 (678)

LimousinCTR<$100

Nevada Wolf Pack

Invested

$66.06

Value

$65.39

PnL

-$0.67

Record

38%

1202-1984 (3186)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Nevada Wolf Pack

Invested

$42.37

Value

$42.57

PnL

+$0.2

Record

83%

882-182 (1064)

BoomLaLa<$100

Utah Valley Wolverines

Invested

$22

Value

$22

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

174-332 (506)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Utah Valley Wolverines

Invested

$11.18

Value

$17.43

PnL

+$6.25

Record

50%

2696-2676 (5372)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Nevada Wolf Pack

Invested

$12.07

Value

$14.02

PnL

+$1.95

Record

50%

1850-1880 (3730)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Nevada Wolf Pack

Invested

$13.58

Value

$13.31

PnL

-$0.27

Record

38%

1223-2021 (3244)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Nevada Wolf Pack

Invested

$4.39

Value

$3.05

PnL

-$1.34

Record

48%

2348-2563 (4911)

SnakeBall<$100

Utah Valley Wolverines

Invested

$2.22

Value

$2.16

PnL

-$0.06

Record

47%

1088-1236 (2324)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100

Nevada Wolf Pack

Invested

Value

$2.04

PnL

-$0.96

Record

45%

143-175 (318)

cigarettes<$100

Utah Valley Wolverines

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.87

PnL

+$0.27

Record

53%

7331-6407 (13738)

Research grade

AvoidUtah Valley Wolverines at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Utah Valley Wolverines

5 of 12 top traders (42%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Utah Valley Wolverines wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.