Spread: IU Indy Jaguars (-6.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles (60%) · Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles at 66¢ · $544 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles
5
Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles 60%
1 arb excluded
$544.25
$30.62
50.7¢ → 66¢
+30% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidSouthern Indiana Screaming Eagles at 66%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Southern Indiana Screaming Eaglesavg 52.3¢ | $242.91 | $239.38 | -$3.53 | 57% 4056-3070 (7126) |
38 38791873984189 | Southern Indiana Screaming Eaglesavg 47.4¢ | $102.89 | $123.83 | +$27.48 | 48% 1420-1557 (2977) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR | IU Indy Jaguarsavg 40¢ | $104 | $101.4 | -$2.6 | 29% 173-422 (595) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | IU Indy Jaguarsavg 59.9¢ | $104.36 | $73.3 | -$31.05 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
| └ IU Indy Jaguars leg | IU Indy Jaguarsavg 59.9¢ | $79.03 | $46.15 | -$32.88 | |
| └ Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles leg | Southern Indiana Screaming Eaglesavg 60.6¢ | $25.33 | $27.16 | +$1.83 | |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Southern Indiana Screaming Eaglesavg 44.8¢ | $25.53 | $3.39 | +$9.09 | 49% 684-724 (1408) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | IU Indy Jaguarsavg 53¢ | $2.76 | $2.94 | +$0.18 | 57% 3226-2432 (5658) |
RN1Invested
$242.91
Value
$239.38
PnL
-$3.53
Record
57%
4056-3070 (7126)
Invested
$102.89
Value
$123.83
PnL
+$27.48
Record
48%
1420-1557 (2977)
Invested
$104
Value
$101.4
PnL
-$2.6
Record
29%
173-422 (595)
Invested
$104.36
Value
$73.3
PnL
-$31.05
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
Both legs:
Invested
$25.53
Value
$3.39
PnL
+$9.09
Record
49%
684-724 (1408)
Invested
$2.76
Value
$2.94
PnL
+$0.18
Record
57%
3226-2432 (5658)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
RN1
Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles — $239.38
38791873984189
Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles — $123.83
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846
CTRIU Indy Jaguars — $101.4
Flaznorp
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Pan9X
Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles — $3.39
HomeRunHazard
CTRIU Indy Jaguars — $2.94