Kansas City Roos vs. George Mason Patriots

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold George Mason Patriots (33%) · George Mason Patriots at 93¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 12

Kansas City Roos7¢George Mason Patriots93¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

George Mason Patriots

Consensus Traders

George Mason Patriots 33%

Total Value

$6.8K

Combined PnL

$17.03

Smart Money Entry

93.4¢ → 93¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidGeorge Mason Patriots at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

George Mason Patriots

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Kansas City Roos7%

George Mason Patriots93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

George Mason Patriots3 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares6,747

Combined PnL+$5

Kansas City Roos6 traders

Total Value$466

Total Shares6,797

Combined PnL+$12.03

George Mason Patriots — 33%Kansas City Roos — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on George Mason Patriots. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKansas City Roos 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Kansas City Roos 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	George Mason Patriotsavg 93.4¢	$6.2K	$6.2K	+$4.95	52% 350-326 (676)
HI hi774cCTR	Kansas City Roosavg 6.2¢	$172.41	$194.71	+$22.3	19% 126-532 (658)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Kansas City Roosavg 7.5¢	$147.58	$127.06	-$20.52	46% 438-515 (953)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Kansas City Roosavg 6.1¢	$71.49	$81.44	+$9.95	57% 3457-2627 (6084)
38 38791873984189<$100	George Mason Patriotsavg 93¢	$78.12	$78.12	+$0	48% 2153-2339 (4492)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Kansas City Roosavg 7¢	$49.56	$49.56	-$0	51% 2526-2431 (4957)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Kansas City Roosavg 7¢	$11.13	$11.13	-$0	41% 543-780 (1323)
SU suntori<$100	George Mason Patriotsavg 93¢	$9.52	$9.57	+$0.05	47% 1547-1731 (3278)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Kansas City Roosavg 6¢	$1.8	$2.1	+$0.3	49% 1071-1128 (2199)

nigiri99

George Mason Patriots

Invested

$6,215.6

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$4.95

Record

52%

350-326 (676)

hi774cCTR

Kansas City Roos

Invested

$172.41

Value

$194.71

PnL

+$22.3

Record

19%

126-532 (658)

SnakeBallCTR

Kansas City Roos

Invested

$147.58

Value

$127.06

PnL

-$20.52

Record

46%

438-515 (953)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Kansas City Roos

Invested

$71.49

Value

$81.44

PnL

+$9.95

Record

57%

3457-2627 (6084)

38791873984189<$100

George Mason Patriots

Invested

$78.12

Value

$78.12

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2153-2339 (4492)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Kansas City Roos

Invested

$49.56

Value

$49.56

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

2526-2431 (4957)

sentrioCTR<$100

Kansas City Roos

Invested

$11.13

Value

$11.13

PnL

-$0

Record

41%

543-780 (1323)

suntori<$100

George Mason Patriots

Invested

$9.52

Value

$9.57

PnL

+$0.05

Record

47%

1547-1731 (3278)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Kansas City Roos

Invested

$1.8

Value

$2.1

PnL

+$0.3

Record

49%

1071-1128 (2199)

Research grade

AvoidGeorge Mason Patriots at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

George Mason Patriots

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on George Mason Patriots. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKansas City Roos 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Kansas City Roos 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that George Mason Patriots wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.