Spread: Kansas Jayhawks (-5.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Kentucky Wildcats (60%) · Kentucky Wildcats at 66¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Kentucky Wildcats
5
Kentucky Wildcats 60%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
$32.87
52¢ → 66¢
+27% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidKentucky Wildcats at 66%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Kentucky Wildcats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HI hi774c | Kentucky Wildcatsavg 52¢ | $845.6 | $869.99 | +$24.39 | 8% 37-422 (459) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Kentucky Wildcatsavg 52¢ | $175.02 | $154.04 | +$3.02 | 48% 959-1032 (1991) |
| └ Kentucky Wildcats leg | Kentucky Wildcatsavg 52¢ | $104.52 | $107.54 | +$3.02 | |
| └ Kansas Jayhawks leg | Kansas Jayhawksavg 47¢ | $47 | $46.5 | +$0 | |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Kansas Jayhawksavg 45¢ | $67.72 | $72.29 | +$4.57 | 50% 1558-1564 (3122) |
 VeryLucky888 | Kentucky Wildcatsavg 52¢ | $102.33 | $53.5 | +$3.58 | 51% 330-315 (645) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Kansas Jayhawksavg 46¢ | $10.31 | $10.53 | +$0.22 | 58% 3828-2805 (6633) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Kentucky Wildcatsavg 52¢ | $7.97 | $8.07 | +$0.1 | 49% 446-472 (918) |
Invested
$845.6
Value
$869.99
PnL
+$24.39
Record
8%
37-422 (459)
Invested
$175.02
Value
$154.04
PnL
+$3.02
Record
48%
959-1032 (1991)
Both legs:
Invested
$67.72
Value
$72.29
PnL
+$4.57
Record
50%
1558-1564 (3122)
VeryLucky888Invested
$102.33
Value
$53.5
PnL
+$3.58
Record
51%
330-315 (645)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$10.31
Value
$10.53
PnL
+$0.22
Record
58%
3828-2805 (6633)
Invested
$7.97
Value
$8.07
PnL
+$0.1
Record
49%
446-472 (918)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.