Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (73%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

UC Riverside Highlanders vs. Fresno State Bulldogs: O/U 149.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 28¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Over73¢Under27¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$19.24

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 27.5¢

-47% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over73%

Under28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,281

Combined PnL+$195.07

Over6 traders

Total Value$631.47

Total Shares1,607

Combined PnL-$175.83

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 51.5¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$196.75	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
0X 0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603	Overavg 50.4¢	$788.97	$610.55	-$178.42	60% 15-10 (25)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 55¢	$13.61	$11.69	-$1.93	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
RN1<$100	Overavg 45¢	$4.36	$7.02	+$2.66	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 44.4¢	$7.45	$6.54	-$0.91	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 39¢	$1.95	$3.63	+$1.68	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
HI hi774c<$100	Overavg 49¢	$3.75	$2.98	-$0.76	23% 187-633 (820)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$0.92	$1.16	+$0.24	34% 175-339 (514)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 43¢	$0.83	$0.75	-$0.08	41% 708-1019 (1727)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$1,204.31

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$196.75

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603

Over

Invested

$788.97

Value

$610.55

PnL

-$178.42

Record

60%

15-10 (25)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.61

Value

$11.69

PnL

-$1.93

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$4.36

Value

$7.02

PnL

+$2.66

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$7.45

Value

$6.54

PnL

-$0.91

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$1.95

Value

$3.63

PnL

+$1.68

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

hi774c<$100

Over

Invested

$3.75

Value

$2.98

PnL

-$0.76

Record

23%

187-633 (820)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.92

Value

$1.16

PnL

+$0.24

Record

34%

175-339 (514)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$0.83

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$0.08

Record

41%

708-1019 (1727)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.5%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$238.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

338.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.