Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (65%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
UC Davis Aggies vs. Sacramento State Hornets: O/U 160.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 35¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 33%
$1.2K
-$43.87
48.2¢ → 35¢
-27% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 35%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 65%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x8cBbF4e3d2D0b6Fb7b684cF1f5EE12d79dFCE8A8-1772503424879 | Underavg 55¢ | $434.12 | $457.8 | +$23.68 | 50% 10-10 (20) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Overavg 45¢ | $355.19 | $307.83 | -$47.36 | 50% 2685-2651 (5336) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 53¢ | $283.92 | $241.19 | -$42.73 | 56% 3778-2937 (6715) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 47¢ | $128.97 | $151.07 | +$22.1 | 47% 3551-3935 (7486) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.75 | +$0.25 | 42% 740-1034 (1774) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $1.69 | $1.87 | +$0.18 | 49% 4290-4528 (8818) |
Invested
$434.12
Value
$457.8
PnL
+$23.68
Record
50%
10-10 (20)
Invested
$355.19
Value
$307.83
PnL
-$47.36
Record
50%
2685-2651 (5336)
Invested
$283.92
Value
$241.19
PnL
-$42.73
Record
56%
3778-2937 (6715)
Invested
$128.97
Value
$151.07
PnL
+$22.1
Record
47%
3551-3935 (7486)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.75
PnL
+$0.25
Record
42%
740-1034 (1774)
Invested
$1.69
Value
$1.87
PnL
+$0.18
Record
49%
4290-4528 (8818)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.