UC Davis Aggies vs. Sacramento State Hornets: O/U 159.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 50¢ · $937 held · ended Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 40%
$937.42
-$80.31
51.9¢ → 50¢
-4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603 | Overavg 52¢ | $515.05 | $465.66 | -$49.39 | 59% 17-12 (29) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 48¢ | $482.12 | $451.84 | -$30.28 | 56% 3778-2937 (6715) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Overavg 46.5¢ | $11.14 | $10.9 | -$0.24 | 49% 4290-4528 (8818) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $4.63 | $4.53 | -$0.1 | 53% 348-313 (661) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $4.8 | $4.5 | -$0.3 | 42% 740-1034 (1774) |
Invested
$515.05
Value
$465.66
PnL
-$49.39
Record
59%
17-12 (29)
Invested
$482.12
Value
$451.84
PnL
-$30.28
Record
56%
3778-2937 (6715)
Invested
$11.14
Value
$10.9
PnL
-$0.24
Record
49%
4290-4528 (8818)
Invested
$4.63
Value
$4.53
PnL
-$0.1
Record
53%
348-313 (661)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$4.5
PnL
-$0.3
Record
42%
740-1034 (1774)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.