Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Sacramento State Hornets, while the market favors UC Davis Aggies (93%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

UC Davis Aggies vs. Sacramento State Hornets

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Sacramento State Hornets (64%) · Sacramento State Hornets at 7.5¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

UC Davis Aggies93¢Sacramento State Hornets7¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Sacramento State Hornets

Consensus Traders

Sacramento State Hornets 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$531.67

Smart Money Entry

61.4¢ → 7.5¢

-88% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidSacramento State Hornets at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sacramento State Hornets

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors UC Davis Aggies 93%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

UC Davis Aggies93%

Sacramento State Hornets8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UC Davis Aggies4 traders

Total Value$784.88

Total Shares925

Combined PnL+$477.64

Sacramento State Hornets7 traders

Total Value$469.24

Total Shares2,243

Combined PnL$-1.0K

UC Davis Aggies — 36%Sacramento State Hornets — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Sacramento State Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedSacramento State Hornets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sacramento State Hornets 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	UC Davis Aggiesavg 34¢	$724.1	$658.14	-$65.96	47% 1065-1216 (2281)
└ UC Davis Aggies leg	UC Davis Aggiesavg 34¢	$509.9	$442.41	-$67.49
└ Sacramento State Hornets leg	Sacramento State Hornetsavg 70¢	$214.2	$215.73	+$1.53
VE Venusian	UC Davis Aggiesavg 35.5¢	$132.13	$316.43	+$184.3	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Sacramento State Hornetsavg 65.7¢	$1.1K	$244.94	-$827.48	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
LI LightParadox	UC Davis Aggiesavg 33.7¢	$83.31	$209.88	+$126.57	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
dips.	UC Davis Aggiesavg 30¢	$61.2	$172.38	+$111.18	48% 1115-1227 (2342)
RN1CTR	Sacramento State Hornetsavg 62.4¢	$142.28	$144.03	+$1.76	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
SM smithagent<$100	UC Davis Aggiesavg 30¢	$30.6	$86.19	+$55.59	46% 775-926 (1701)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Sacramento State Hornetsavg 17¢	$29.92	$28.16	-$1.76	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
38 38791873984189CTR	Sacramento State Hornetsavg 65.8¢	$219.03	$21.79	-$88.85	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Sacramento State Hornetsavg 63.3¢	$39.68	$14.52	-$11.21	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Sacramento State Hornetsavg 64.4¢	$108.66	$10.99	-$80.67	48% 311-334 (645)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Sacramento State Hornetsavg 59¢	$5.9	$4.8	-$1.1	56% 3778-2937 (6715)

SnakeBallARB<$100

UC Davis Aggies

Invested

$724.1

Value

$658.14

PnL

-$65.96

Record

47%

1065-1216 (2281)

Both legs:

UC Davis Aggies$509.934¢-$67.49

Sacramento State Hornets$214.270¢+$1.53

Venusian

UC Davis Aggies

Invested

$132.13

Value

$316.43

PnL

+$184.3

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

FlaznorpCTR

Sacramento State Hornets

Invested

$1,072.42

Value

$244.94

PnL

-$827.48

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

LightParadox

UC Davis Aggies

Invested

$83.31

Value

$209.88

PnL

+$126.57

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

dips.

UC Davis Aggies

Invested

$61.2

Value

$172.38

PnL

+$111.18

Record

48%

1115-1227 (2342)

RN1CTR

Sacramento State Hornets

Invested

$142.28

Value

$144.03

PnL

+$1.76

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

smithagent<$100

UC Davis Aggies

Invested

$30.6

Value

$86.19

PnL

+$55.59

Record

46%

775-926 (1701)

LimousinCTR<$100

Sacramento State Hornets

Invested

$29.92

Value

$28.16

PnL

-$1.76

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

38791873984189CTR

Sacramento State Hornets

Invested

$219.03

Value

$21.79

PnL

-$88.85

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Sacramento State Hornets

Invested

$39.68

Value

$14.52

PnL

-$11.21

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

thirdt1meCTR

Sacramento State Hornets

Invested

$108.66

Value

$10.99

PnL

-$80.67

Record

48%

311-334 (645)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Sacramento State Hornets

Invested

$5.9

Value

$4.8

PnL

-$1.1

Record

56%

3778-2937 (6715)

Research grade

AvoidSacramento State Hornets at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Sacramento State Hornets

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors UC Davis Aggies 93%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Sacramento State Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedSacramento State Hornets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sacramento State Hornets 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sacramento State Hornets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.9%

7.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1025.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

1125.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.