Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (55%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

UAB Blazers vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks: O/U 149.5

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 46¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15

Over46¢Under54¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 25%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$43.79

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 45.5¢

-13% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$651.43

Total Shares1,291

Combined PnL-$21.49

Under6 traders

Total Value$757.44

Total Shares1,413

Combined PnL+$65.27

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603CTR	Overavg 52.2¢	$663.56	$641.87	-$21.69	60% 15-10 (25)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 48.6¢	$564.58	$626.17	+$61.59	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 47¢	$49.42	$51.96	+$2.54	48% 3212-3512 (6724)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 50¢	$34.51	$34.16	-$0.35	49% 3815-3978 (7793)
BI biying99999<$100	Underavg 47¢	$28.76	$30.29	+$1.53	35% 106-193 (299)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 50¢	$12.5	$12.38	-$0.13	48% 2070-2232 (4302)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Overavg 46.5¢	$9.35	$9.55	+$0.2	35% 162-305 (467)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.48	+$0.08	41% 693-1010 (1703)

0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603CTR

Over

Invested

$663.56

Value

$641.87

PnL

-$21.69

Record

60%

15-10 (25)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$564.58

Value

$626.17

PnL

+$61.59

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$49.42

Value

$51.96

PnL

+$2.54

Record

48%

3212-3512 (6724)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$34.51

Value

$34.16

PnL

-$0.35

Record

49%

3815-3978 (7793)

biying99999<$100

Under

Invested

$28.76

Value

$30.29

PnL

+$1.53

Record

35%

106-193 (299)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$12.5

Value

$12.38

PnL

-$0.13

Record

48%

2070-2232 (4302)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.35

Value

$9.55

PnL

+$0.2

Record

35%

162-305 (467)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$0.08

Record

41%

693-1010 (1703)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.