Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold UAB Blazers, while the market favors Jacksonville State Gamecocks (76%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: UAB Blazers (-3.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold UAB Blazers (56%) · UAB Blazers at 25¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

UAB Blazers25¢Jacksonville State Gamecocks75¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

UAB Blazers

Consensus Traders

UAB Blazers 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$14.22

Smart Money Entry

45.6¢ → 24.5¢

-46% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUAB Blazers at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UAB Blazers

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Jacksonville State Gamecocks 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

UAB Blazers25%

Jacksonville State Gamecocks76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jacksonville State Gamecocks4 traders

Total Value$215.56

Total Shares286

Combined PnL+$37.7

UAB Blazers5 traders

Total Value$350.32

Total Shares801

Combined PnL-$23.48

Jacksonville State Gamecocks — 44%UAB Blazers — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Jacksonville State Gamecocksavg 50.4¢	$614.64	$639.53	+$34.41	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
└ Jacksonville State Gamecocks leg	Jacksonville State Gamecocksavg 50.4¢	$353.51	$399.57	+$47.01
└ UAB Blazers leg	UAB Blazersavg 45.3¢	$252.56	$239.96	-$12.6
FL Flaznorp	Jacksonville State Gamecocksavg 61¢	$147.61	$182.7	+$35.09	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
FO forecastication4CTR	UAB Blazersavg 50¢	$140	$121.8	-$18.2	34% 175-339 (514)
FO Forecastication2CTR	UAB Blazersavg 39¢	$119.72	$115.12	-$4.6	45% 277-332 (609)
38 38791873984189CTR	UAB Blazersavg 49.4¢	$212.9	$101.81	+$0.37	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
PA Pan9X<$100	Jacksonville State Gamecocksavg 75¢	$18.93	$19.18	+$0.25	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Jacksonville State Gamecocksavg 61¢	$9.15	$11.33	+$2.18	48% 2245-2407 (4652)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	UAB Blazersavg 48¢	$10.39	$9.41	-$0.97	35% 166-306 (472)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Jacksonville State Gamecocksavg 52¢	$2.16	$2.35	+$0.19	53% 310-274 (584)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	UAB Blazersavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.18	-$0.08	41% 708-1019 (1727)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Jacksonville State Gamecocks

Invested

$614.64

Value

$639.53

PnL

+$34.41

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

Both legs:

Jacksonville State Gamecocks$353.5150.4¢+$47.01

UAB Blazers$252.5645.3¢-$12.6

Flaznorp

Jacksonville State Gamecocks

Invested

$147.61

Value

$182.7

PnL

+$35.09

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

forecastication4CTR

UAB Blazers

Invested

$140

Value

$121.8

PnL

-$18.2

Record

34%

175-339 (514)

Forecastication2CTR

UAB Blazers

Invested

$119.72

Value

$115.12

PnL

-$4.6

Record

45%

277-332 (609)

38791873984189CTR

UAB Blazers

Invested

$212.9

Value

$101.81

PnL

+$0.37

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

Pan9X<$100

Jacksonville State Gamecocks

Invested

$18.93

Value

$19.18

PnL

+$0.25

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

ferdinand2<$100

Jacksonville State Gamecocks

Invested

$9.15

Value

$11.33

PnL

+$2.18

Record

48%

2245-2407 (4652)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

UAB Blazers

Invested

$10.39

Value

$9.41

PnL

-$0.97

Record

35%

166-306 (472)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Jacksonville State Gamecocks

Invested

$2.16

Value

$2.35

PnL

+$0.19

Record

53%

310-274 (584)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

UAB Blazers

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$0.08

Record

41%

708-1019 (1727)

Research grade

AvoidUAB Blazers at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

UAB Blazers

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Jacksonville State Gamecocks 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UAB Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.4%

24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$278.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

378.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.