UAB Blazers vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold UAB Blazers (56%) · UAB Blazers at 53¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
UAB Blazers
9
UAB Blazers 56%
$1.7K
-$67.39
55.1¢ → 52.5¢
-5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUAB Blazers at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | UAB Blazersavg 56¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$73.08 | 52% 602-565 (1167) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Jacksonville State Gamecocksavg 44¢ | $247.72 | $256.17 | +$8.44 | 56% 541-433 (974) |
FL Flaznorp | UAB Blazersavg 47¢ | $97.45 | $108.85 | +$11.4 | 49% 4123-4317 (8440) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Jacksonville State Gamecocksavg 53¢ | $109.89 | $94.34 | -$15.55 | 47% 985-1122 (2107) |
TH thirdt1me<$100 | UAB Blazersavg 53¢ | $53 | $53.5 | +$0.5 | 48% 294-314 (608) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Jacksonville State Gamecocksavg 42¢ | $16.66 | $17.45 | +$0.79 | 56% 3718-2886 (6604) |
 RN1<$100 | UAB Blazersavg 53¢ | $11.75 | $11.86 | +$0.11 | 55% 5525-4565 (10090) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | UAB Blazersavg 55¢ | $9.74 | $9.65 | -$0.09 | 49% 1694-1746 (3440) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Jacksonville State Gamecocksavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2.28 | +$0.07 | 41% 708-1019 (1727) |
nigiri99Invested
$1,169.28
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$73.08
Record
52%
602-565 (1167)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$247.72
Value
$256.17
PnL
+$8.44
Record
56%
541-433 (974)
Invested
$97.45
Value
$108.85
PnL
+$11.4
Record
49%
4123-4317 (8440)
Invested
$109.89
Value
$94.34
PnL
-$15.55
Record
47%
985-1122 (2107)
Invested
$53
Value
$53.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
48%
294-314 (608)
Invested
$16.66
Value
$17.45
PnL
+$0.79
Record
56%
3718-2886 (6604)
RN1<$100Invested
$11.75
Value
$11.86
PnL
+$0.11
Record
55%
5525-4565 (10090)
Invested
$9.74
Value
$9.65
PnL
-$0.09
Record
49%
1694-1746 (3440)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.28
PnL
+$0.07
Record
41%
708-1019 (1727)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
nigiri99
UAB Blazers — $1.1K
0xheavy888
CTRJacksonville State Gamecocks — $256.17
Flaznorp
UAB Blazers — $108.85
SnakeBall
CTRJacksonville State Gamecocks — $94.34
thirdt1me
UAB Blazers — $53.5
HomeRunHazard
CTRJacksonville State Gamecocks — $17.45
RN1
UAB Blazers — $11.86
Pan9X
UAB Blazers — $9.65
ameisgoat11
CTRJacksonville State Gamecocks — $2.28