Texas State Bobcats vs. Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros: O/U 144.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 62¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 50%
$1.2K
$4.53
58.2¢ → 62¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 62%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 58.9¢ | $462.85 | $491.4 | +$28.55 | 50% 1390-1407 (2797) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Overavg 41.6¢ | $345.69 | $311.61 | -$34.08 | 56% 105-81 (186) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 56.5¢ | $233.41 | $247.94 | +$14.53 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $48.77 | $50.8 | +$2.03 | 30% 160-379 (539) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $44 | $40 | -$4 | 48% 220-236 (456) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100 | Overavg 40¢ | $40 | $37.5 | -$2.5 | 3% 7-227 (234) |
Invested
$462.85
Value
$491.4
PnL
+$28.55
Record
50%
1390-1407 (2797)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$345.69
Value
$311.61
PnL
-$34.08
Record
56%
105-81 (186)
Invested
$233.41
Value
$247.94
PnL
+$14.53
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$48.77
Value
$50.8
PnL
+$2.03
Record
30%
160-379 (539)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$44
Value
$40
PnL
-$4
Record
48%
220-236 (456)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100Invested
$40
Value
$37.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
3%
7-227 (234)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.