Texas State Bobcats vs. Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros: O/U 140.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 56¢ · $600 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 40%
$599.52
$5.99
52¢ → 55.5¢
+7% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 56%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RollAwayTheDew | Underavg 52¢ | $292.5 | $303.75 | +$11.25 | 3% 7-227 (234) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $236.18 | $231.88 | -$4.31 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 47.8¢ | $59.84 | $58.84 | -$1 | 49% 235-240 (475) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $2.65 | $2.7 | +$0.05 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $2.35 | +$0 | 24% 161-506 (667) |
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$292.5
Value
$303.75
PnL
+$11.25
Record
3%
7-227 (234)
Invested
$236.18
Value
$231.88
PnL
-$4.31
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$59.84
Value
$58.84
PnL
-$1
Record
49%
235-240 (475)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$2.7
PnL
+$0.05
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.35
PnL
+$0
Record
24%
161-506 (667)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.